Is Protoss underpowered in high level play? [SPOILERS]
UPDATED WITH LATEST DATA FOR JULY/AUGUST - SEE PAGE 9
Introduction
The worm has turned. It began almost impercetibly. Protoss players such as myself started questioning whether the balance complaints of other races were really justified in light of the results we were seeing at high level play.
I have previously said it would be unwise to jump to conclusions based on the results of a couple of high profile games or one tournament. I am still of that view. What I would like to discuss is the emergence of an apparent trend in poor protoss results in high level play. I say "apparent" trend because I think it is still too early to conclude that what we are seeing is actually a "trend".
Conscious of not jumping to a premature conclusion, it seems to me that the emerging data raises a legitimate question: is protoss currently underpowered in high level play?
Disclaimer
As a protoss player I have an interest in this debate. I will try to keep this to a minimum, but I am conscious that the very fact that I am raising it as a topic of discussion demonstrates an inherent bias on my part. I hope you will forgive me!
Some definitions
First, my discussion is limited to high level play. By "high level play", I mean top tournaments such as GSL, and Grandmasters league, with particular emphasis on the leagues in Korea, NA and Europe, which I suggest are the most competitive.
Second, I have carefully and deliberately used the word underpowered. By underpowered, I do not mean "unplayable" or "uncompetitive". Strong players will continue to perform well because their inherent skill allows them to overcome possible shortcomings with their race. Underpowered also involves questions of degree - it may be very slight, such that the effect on lower level players is low or almost negligible, but enough to have a significant effect at higher levels.
Third, the expression underpowered in high level play is important. It may also be legitimate to ask "is protoss overpowered in low level play?", having regard to the race's arguably simpler mechanics (I'll leave this for others to decide).
Why it is important to look at data
In any non-mirror match up, it seems to me there are three key variables that affect the outcome of the game. The first, and probably most significant, is the player (or more correctly, players). The second variable is race. The third is map. In examining the relative "power" of a race, we are trying to eliminate the "noise" that is created as a result of differences in player skill and different maps.
For this reason, I suggest (although you may disagree) it is virtually useless to examine anecdotal experience - ie a player's personal experience of the race and their recent games. This is because the key variable here is the player, not the map or race. But, when we look at the results of hundreds (or thousands) of games, the significance of the "player" diminishes drastically, whereas the importance of "race" (and "map") dramatically increases.
I acknowledge that the following data does not attempt to isolate "map" as a factor, and that this is a significant limitation. I apologise in that the data is simply not available.
In summary, what those results showed was that in global tournaments, the win rate for all match ups had begun to approach 50% (although I would be interested to see the current results more than one month (and 1 patch) later). However, the results showed Protoss was been getting absolutely murdered in recent Korean tournaments, with win rates of 33% of ZvT and 30% of ZvP. I said at the time I would be interested to see whether this was the start of an emerging trend (Korea tends to lead the field in all things Starcraft).
The results of the current GSL "Super Tournament" have been, if anything even more dramatic. 16 protoss players qualified for the round of 64. This represents 25% of the field, despite the fact that Protoss players make up approximately 35% of active 1v1 players in Korean. Of these, 6 advanced to the round of 32 (two of whom advanced in mirror match ups). Three Protoss players have so far played in the round of 32 (Genius, HongUn and Trickster) and all have been knocked out. I pray that at least one of the remaining three advances to the top 16, so that there is at least someone I can watch to pick up some tips on how to play the race at the moment. But I think there is a real risk at the moment that we will have a quarter final (or even round of 16) with not a single protoss player.
I note in passing that the number of Korean protoss players complaining about balance has (as of yesterday), overtaken zerg players for the first time in many months (see http://www.playxp.com/sc2/jingjing/ - red = zerg, green = terran, blue = protoss, purple = nothing). Of course, all this demonstrates is "sentiment" (what people think about balance) rather than an actual indicator of balance.
Grandmasters League statistics
The number of Protoss players in the Korean Grandmasters League has remained the same as when I last examined the data. 32% of Korean Grandmasters play protoss, compared to around 35% of all players. They remain slightly underrepresented amongst Grandmasters. (It should also be remembered that random is dramatically underrepresented in GMs League, and as a result (statistically at least) Zerg and Terran are both significantly overrepresented. Zerg is the most overrepresented. There is a similar trend in SEA: see my earlier thread at http://www.sc2sea.com/archive/index.php/t-1242.html).
There continues to be very few Protoss players in the top 10 of any of the regions. Based on my search this morning, of the top 10 players in each of the major regions, NA has 1 Protoss, EU has 0 Protoss, Korea has 2 Protoss and SEA has 1 Protoss. By contrast:
- 5 of the NA top 10 are Terran and 4 are Zerg;
- 6 of the EU top 10 are Terran and 4 are Zerg;
- 7 of the Korean top 10 are Terran and 1 is Zerg; and
- 3 of the SEA top 10 are Terran and 6 are Zerg.
Discussion
These results hardly provide a definitive answer to the question I have asked. But, I think, the data legitimately entitles me to ask the question: is Protoss currently underpowered in high level play?
I am very curious to see what Blizzard's overall data shows, and really wish they would release this (as they have done in the past). The most problematic scenario, I think, is one in which the data shows Protoss is overperforming in lower level play (whether that be overperformance in bronze, silver, gold, platinum, or overperformance all the way up to high Masters). At the moment I don't have any data and could only speculate on the position below Grandmasters. If this were the case, would raise the question, as many have already suggested, of who it is that Blizzard should be balancing the game for - professionals or the average player? Personally, I tend to think it should be balanced for high level play and everyone else should try and catch up by looking at what the professionals do. However, at the moment we do not have data to suggest any underperformance by Protoss below the parameters I have identified.
On a sad note, it will be difficult for me to pick up much to "imitate" from the GSL super tournament. Unfortunately, most of the Protoss games have been terribly one-sided and not really worth watching (for my part, it is starting to look brutal and somewhat bleak out there for the pros). However, I remain optimistic that one of the remaining Protoss players will show us something new and spectactular to stop the rot. My hopes are now pinned on SlayerS_Alicia (who, for those of you who don't know, more or less gave us the aggressive 3gate expand which revolutionised PvT a few months ago).
Tom please add at least one picture to your articles so it has a thumbnail!
JPMoney: Fair Enough It is hard, and frustrating T_T
Ridiculisk: As mentioned before by posters such as Crazerk, JPMoney and Roz. What you guys are saying is spot on. However this does not stop a little discussion based on hard data.
Tom/Benji: Seems like you guys are inclined to disagree on how to interpret/use the different hard data sets that is available. I am sort of inclined to the notion at how little Protoss are doing well compared to the high numbers of actual Protoss participants in these recent tournaments. I also believe that outlier players such as MC and Naniwa(Only protoss who aren't relying on timing attacks) are really carrying the weight for the Protoss just as FD and Nestea has been back in the darker time for Zerg.
I know I may sound whiney and such, but I have never went into a game feeling like my race was the underdog race, ever. Merely that I don't have the answers better players would have. Watching Naniwa and MC at MLG, I believe the low-time for Protoss won't last too long.
On balance, a few months ago, zerg players brought this issue up and back then, the graphs showed a significant imbalance for the zerg players in terms of tournament results. Today, we've got protoss players saying that protoss is UP. Give it a few more months before jumping to the conclusion that protoss is UP because that was what ALL zerg players thought back then about their own race. They have improved their mechanics to the stage that zerg is seen as being OP in ZvPs but this came about after months of frustration when playing against protoss players with the old strategies (no/lack of infestors).
As for the infestor 'buff'. Personally, I really do not see how infestors were 'buffed' against protoss. Fungals are usually used to stop sentries from running away (or stalkers from blinking away) from banes not to kill them so technically, infestors with their 8 second effect time were in fact stronger... That 'buff' just encouraged zerg players to use their infestors more. Perhaps there is a similar unit like this that protoss has which is underused. I thought it was the phoenix but that just made PvT a little more balanced. LOL!
Should protoss be given the Khaydarin amulet back? The mothership vortex 'nerf' (or rather a fix of the bug) is really what brought the playing field back even for the PvZ matchups.
Infestor buff gave Zerg a legitimate midgame option to deal with the "Deathball". It also completely shuts down the previously undefeatable Voidray/Collosi mix Protoss used to use. The newer infestors has definitely taken away many timings/options/unit mixes that Protoss used to exploit. (Which was incredibly hard for Zerg to deal with)
I believe it was moreso when Zerg players realised how to abuse their mobile/cheap units against the immobile Protoss army which cannot be split up, that PvZ balance started going the other way. Previously Zerg just rushed to 200/200, sat infront of their bases then waited for a Protoss "deathball" to come crush them.
Last edited by nGenLight; Wed, 8th-Jun-2011 at 4:19 PM.
To those pointing to the fact that Zerg was previously underpowered but has improved its results over time (and Protoss likewise needs to learn to adapt), I would point out that there have been several patches over that time that have been kind to Zerg (and not so kind to Protoss). I'm not saying that there hasn't also been some "learning" by Zerg - undoubtedly there has. But I think patching has also played some role.
If data becomes available that strongly suggests Protoss are underperforming, I don't see why Blizzard should not consider balance changes. They have made so many balance changes already based on trends that developed over small periods of time (arguably smaller than what we are currently seeing with Protoss).
Infestor buff gave Zerg a legitimate midgame option to deal with the "Deathball". It also completely shuts down the previously undefeatable Voidray/Collosi mix Protoss used to use. The newer infestors has definitely taken away many timings/options/unit mixes that Protoss used to exploit. (Which was incredibly hard for Zerg to deal with).
So the newer infestors deal more dmg to the voids. Is that why the fungals are better now as compared to the previous fungal where a unit was held down for 8 seconds but barely damaged by the spell? Just wondering since it'll help me a lot in my ZvP matchups.
Fungal Growth
Stun duration decreased from 8 to 4 seconds.
Damage increased by +30% vs. armored units.
This means that Fungal Growth DPS has increased from 100% to 200% per second as opposed to before against non armoured units (Sentries die to 2 casts of fungal, which takes about 8 seconds, as opposed to 16 seconds prepatch). Against armoured units like Void Ray/Stalkers/Collosi, the DPS has increased to 260% dps (because of the +30% against armoured bonus) as opposed to the patch before this. Combined with a few baneling drops, a Protoss player that doesn't have good unit control will just instant lose his entire deathball.
When I saw your opinions vs Light's I kind of was on Light's side. NOT because I'm in same clan with him, but from a neutral 3rd person's view your knowledge of game compared to his looks very weak just by looking at your replys to Light (For example, you saying 20 medivacs cost "a little more" than 20 overloads. Overloads is a "supply" unit where we HAVE to make them to get our supplies up unlike medivac which is just a form of unit that is not a MUST to get your supplies up therefore getting 20 medivacs will take you MUCH longer than 20 overloads and 100gas per unit is ALOT of difference). I can't see in any where where Light "whines". Light was asked a question by Benji and he answered it in a sentence that I can't really remember word for word but something like "I don't think Zerg is OP with anything but just the metagame at the moment favours zerg and if HE HAVE TO nerf something maybe ventral sacs". This should be very different to what he said exactly but something like this. I don't want to sound rude to you but I think I have to be rude to be honest with you. Please don't talk about balance when you don't know much about. Some people, (moletrap..) think they know alot about balance although they are not a very good player. This can be true, but hardly not many people are. And in most of the cases, the "better" player knows more about the game than the player who just watches mostly or is just a worse player.
Personally, I don't think Protoss is UP as becasue I can't find any certain unit or strategy that is just too "unfair" (hard to stop even with scouting, not much sacrifice required by the one who is doing it. Or skill) by zerg. I think the only strategy that is broken is the 11/11rax scv marine cheese but this is off topic. Protoss just needs a metagame shift I think. Yes they are not having a great time these days but they are certainly not UP. If I have to say it, I'd say, Protoss is UP "now" but not forever possibly even without any balance patch.
When i see threads like these i feel like they should have a reason other than results that may or may not be skewed by individual player skill, sample numbers or selection. Like the recent starwars tournament that enjoyed a top 4 protoss finish. What is it that is so overpowered about the other races that protoss can't deal with? I feel like in zvp especially protoss have not had enough time to learn to deal with all the new zerg styles that have been used recently.
Whilst there have been mentions of the Super Tournament, I want to note that even though its still halfway through the Ro16, we already know that we will have a TvX Finals, and 4/8 of the players still alive in the other side of the bracket are Terrans...
As for the infestor 'buff'. Personally, I really do not see how infestors were 'buffed' against protoss. Fungals are usually used to stop sentries from running away (or stalkers from blinking away)
DUDE, you sure infestor BUFF doesn't impact the currently PvZ? Good casted fungal doesnt just STOP sentries or stalkers, it doest stop colo from micro-ing away with massive banelings drops to crash it.
The reproducing of higher tier units like colo take mins as per compared to zerg reproduction if you have lots of larvas saved up.
DUDE, you sure infestor BUFF doesn't impact the currently PvZ? Good casted fungal doesnt just STOP sentries or stalkers, it doest stop colo from micro-ing away with massive banelings drops to crash it.
The reproducing of higher tier units like colo take mins as per compared to zerg reproduction if you have lots of larvas saved up.
Dude... Read on... It's obvious that you stopped reading after seeing that 2 sentences. What did I say AFTER that. FG USED to be 8 seconds. 4 secs compared to 8 secs. Now WHICH one is harder to micro away from? Which FG will make your army more susceptible to bane drops?
Fungal Growth
Stun duration decreased from 8 to 4 seconds.
Damage increased by +30% vs. armored units.
Just to add on, stun duration decrease also means that Zerg players can now cast FG one after another much quicker. It is possible to kill off a Protoss ball just by casting multiple FG with infestors alone
pikkon have you actually tried infestor bling vs protoss??? man.... im out of this thread, its pointless.
Last comment:
Protoss is not OP. If you lose, YOU LOSE.
SnoWPanda, did you actually read what I wrote? Are you going to be just as ignorant as dennistoo was? My point is I KNOW how effective infestors are and that it's a pity it took the zerg players (myself included) till after the so-called 'buff' to utilize them properly. My MAIN point was infestors were better before that patch with the extended fungal growth since you wouldn't need as many infestors in your army. You can have a larger number of BANES to kill off the death ball which is stuck for 8 seconds.
Protoss was never OP but there were certain features of protoss that made them seem OP which has been fixed. This is NOT FF but rather the archon toilet and to a lesser extent, khaydarin amulets.
:S I hate retyping what I typed earlier but sometimes, people just read 1 or 2 sentences and post immediately. *sigh*
^ I understand what you are trying to say regarding fungal growth being "stronger" before the patch. But I have a feeling 99% of Terran/Protoss and even Zerg would disagree with that sentiment, you are heavily underestimating the DPS(2.6x DPS) of the new fungal growth and how that changes the game. This also means more fungal growth can be used more rapidly with your idle Infestors instead of watching them die to Collosi/Tank fire otherwise.
SnoWPanda, did you actually read what I wrote? Are you going to be just as ignorant as dennistoo was? My point is I KNOW how effective infestors are and that it's a pity it took the zerg players (myself included) till after the so-called 'buff' to utilize them properly. My MAIN point was infestors were better before that patch with the extended fungal growth since you wouldn't need as many infestors in your army. You can have a larger number of BANES to kill off the death ball which is stuck for 8 seconds.
Protoss was never OP but there were certain features of protoss that made them seem OP which has been fixed. This is NOT FF but rather the archon toilet and to a lesser extent, khaydarin amulets.
:S I hate retyping what I typed earlier but sometimes, people just read 1 or 2 sentences and post immediately. *sigh*
Yes i do read everything. I just don't want to argue. This is not personal but a general comment.
There are people who theorycraft with a preconcieved bias towards another race. Im sick of this perception of protoss players been cheesy, uncreative people who just rely on "OP" units and never macro or explore the potential of their race. There is no point to arguing with those theory crafters, they will never accept anything other than that which reinforces they biases and just lower the level of the discussion to balance whines.
^ I understand what you are trying to say regarding fungal growth being "stronger" before the patch. But I have a feeling 99% of Terran/Protoss and even Zerg would disagree with that sentiment, you are heavily underestimating the DPS(2.6x DPS) of the new fungal growth and how that changes the game. This also means more fungal growth can be used more rapidly with your idle Infestors instead of watching them die to Collosi/Tank fire otherwise.
Yes. I know what you mean. As terran against THAT new fungal, my army dies so quickly. But it seems that the point being made by dennistoo was mainly about fungal stopping him from microing. Your earlier point about 2 fungals to kill a sentry definitely enlightened me as well as voids dying earlier. But the 2 posters that I am debating with didn't make any mention about fungal being able to kill armoured units quicker now. Seemed more like a QQ about bling/infestors and trying to pick a fight with someone who never said that toss or zerg is UP/OP. :S It's not like they are adding anything to my point like what you had done earlier. I'm pretty much on the fence on this because I play all 3 races.
Yes i do read everything. I just don't want to argue. This is not personal but a general comment.
There are people who theorycraft with a preconcieved bias towards another race. Im sick of this perception of protoss players been cheesy, uncreative people who just rely on "OP" units and never macro or explore the potential of their race. There is no point to arguing with those theory crafters, they will never accept anything other than that which reinforces they biases and just lower the level of the discussion to balance whines.
Fair enough but your initial sentence really irked me. I have been part of threads when zerg players were QQing about toss being OP and now this. Never once have I said that protoss is OP. I have always defended both races because I felt back then that FF being OP was just :S and now, it's just again a gut feeling that infestors are not that OP. It pretty much took spanishiwa to force the zerg players to use infestors more and hopefully there will be something for protoss players in the not too distant future. I'm just saying that isn't it too early to make that judgement about zerg being OP and toss UP? I have noticed however nGenLight's slide down the GM ranking which was rather surprising seeing that he was the top player for a really long time. On top of that, zerg players are suddenly moving up the ranks.
As for cheesiness, if you follow the BW scene, the korean players are always cheesy but they have follow-ups. I disagree with cheese haters. Cheese will always be part of the game. MC's game where he cannon 'cheesed' idrA on Tal Darim was really interesting but all that really did was delay the mining. When roaches pop out, the cannons would have been taken care of. It just allowed the toss to get his own expo safely and be not that far behind the zerg economically. However, from those games, it seems that the current way to stop a ling/bling/infestor composition is by forcing the zerg into a different tech path with your phoenixes and voids since zerg has always been a reactionary race.
i dont QQ about protoss, I "QQ" about the percption of protoss because I am a protoss player. I dont get into pointless debates. People just play the fuken game.
EDIT:
I don’t like balance discussions; they are always subjective to the players understanding of the game and his particular experiences. This makes it almost impossible to have a constructive dialogue, the result will always be a reflection of that players beliefs and will simply reinforces the views of others who have similar experiences.
But when a balance argument ends up as masked attacks on the ability of protoss players. I take that personally. As a protoss player I will defend the honour of protoss players when I see nGenLight the top protoss on this server dismissed so easily in posts that accuse protoss players of uncreativity and “lack of macro”.
I will jump out and comment on balance if only to defend the respect of protoss players.
User has received an infraction for this post. Accumulation of points pass a certain number will result in automatic bans.
Last edited by SnoWPanda; Thu, 9th-Jun-2011 at 11:27 PM.
Reason: Infraction
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