Is Protoss underpowered in high level play? [SPOILERS]
UPDATED WITH LATEST DATA FOR JULY/AUGUST - SEE PAGE 9
Introduction
The worm has turned. It began almost impercetibly. Protoss players such as myself started questioning whether the balance complaints of other races were really justified in light of the results we were seeing at high level play.
I have previously said it would be unwise to jump to conclusions based on the results of a couple of high profile games or one tournament. I am still of that view. What I would like to discuss is the emergence of an apparent trend in poor protoss results in high level play. I say "apparent" trend because I think it is still too early to conclude that what we are seeing is actually a "trend".
Conscious of not jumping to a premature conclusion, it seems to me that the emerging data raises a legitimate question: is protoss currently underpowered in high level play?
Disclaimer
As a protoss player I have an interest in this debate. I will try to keep this to a minimum, but I am conscious that the very fact that I am raising it as a topic of discussion demonstrates an inherent bias on my part. I hope you will forgive me!
Some definitions
First, my discussion is limited to high level play. By "high level play", I mean top tournaments such as GSL, and Grandmasters league, with particular emphasis on the leagues in Korea, NA and Europe, which I suggest are the most competitive.
Second, I have carefully and deliberately used the word underpowered. By underpowered, I do not mean "unplayable" or "uncompetitive". Strong players will continue to perform well because their inherent skill allows them to overcome possible shortcomings with their race. Underpowered also involves questions of degree - it may be very slight, such that the effect on lower level players is low or almost negligible, but enough to have a significant effect at higher levels.
Third, the expression underpowered in high level play is important. It may also be legitimate to ask "is protoss overpowered in low level play?", having regard to the race's arguably simpler mechanics (I'll leave this for others to decide).
Why it is important to look at data
In any non-mirror match up, it seems to me there are three key variables that affect the outcome of the game. The first, and probably most significant, is the player (or more correctly, players). The second variable is race. The third is map. In examining the relative "power" of a race, we are trying to eliminate the "noise" that is created as a result of differences in player skill and different maps.
For this reason, I suggest (although you may disagree) it is virtually useless to examine anecdotal experience - ie a player's personal experience of the race and their recent games. This is because the key variable here is the player, not the map or race. But, when we look at the results of hundreds (or thousands) of games, the significance of the "player" diminishes drastically, whereas the importance of "race" (and "map") dramatically increases.
I acknowledge that the following data does not attempt to isolate "map" as a factor, and that this is a significant limitation. I apologise in that the data is simply not available.
In summary, what those results showed was that in global tournaments, the win rate for all match ups had begun to approach 50% (although I would be interested to see the current results more than one month (and 1 patch) later). However, the results showed Protoss was been getting absolutely murdered in recent Korean tournaments, with win rates of 33% of ZvT and 30% of ZvP. I said at the time I would be interested to see whether this was the start of an emerging trend (Korea tends to lead the field in all things Starcraft).
The results of the current GSL "Super Tournament" have been, if anything even more dramatic. 16 protoss players qualified for the round of 64. This represents 25% of the field, despite the fact that Protoss players make up approximately 35% of active 1v1 players in Korean. Of these, 6 advanced to the round of 32 (two of whom advanced in mirror match ups). Three Protoss players have so far played in the round of 32 (Genius, HongUn and Trickster) and all have been knocked out. I pray that at least one of the remaining three advances to the top 16, so that there is at least someone I can watch to pick up some tips on how to play the race at the moment. But I think there is a real risk at the moment that we will have a quarter final (or even round of 16) with not a single protoss player.
I note in passing that the number of Korean protoss players complaining about balance has (as of yesterday), overtaken zerg players for the first time in many months (see http://www.playxp.com/sc2/jingjing/ - red = zerg, green = terran, blue = protoss, purple = nothing). Of course, all this demonstrates is "sentiment" (what people think about balance) rather than an actual indicator of balance.
Grandmasters League statistics
The number of Protoss players in the Korean Grandmasters League has remained the same as when I last examined the data. 32% of Korean Grandmasters play protoss, compared to around 35% of all players. They remain slightly underrepresented amongst Grandmasters. (It should also be remembered that random is dramatically underrepresented in GMs League, and as a result (statistically at least) Zerg and Terran are both significantly overrepresented. Zerg is the most overrepresented. There is a similar trend in SEA: see my earlier thread at http://www.sc2sea.com/archive/index.php/t-1242.html).
There continues to be very few Protoss players in the top 10 of any of the regions. Based on my search this morning, of the top 10 players in each of the major regions, NA has 1 Protoss, EU has 0 Protoss, Korea has 2 Protoss and SEA has 1 Protoss. By contrast:
- 5 of the NA top 10 are Terran and 4 are Zerg;
- 6 of the EU top 10 are Terran and 4 are Zerg;
- 7 of the Korean top 10 are Terran and 1 is Zerg; and
- 3 of the SEA top 10 are Terran and 6 are Zerg.
Discussion
These results hardly provide a definitive answer to the question I have asked. But, I think, the data legitimately entitles me to ask the question: is Protoss currently underpowered in high level play?
I am very curious to see what Blizzard's overall data shows, and really wish they would release this (as they have done in the past). The most problematic scenario, I think, is one in which the data shows Protoss is overperforming in lower level play (whether that be overperformance in bronze, silver, gold, platinum, or overperformance all the way up to high Masters). At the moment I don't have any data and could only speculate on the position below Grandmasters. If this were the case, would raise the question, as many have already suggested, of who it is that Blizzard should be balancing the game for - professionals or the average player? Personally, I tend to think it should be balanced for high level play and everyone else should try and catch up by looking at what the professionals do. However, at the moment we do not have data to suggest any underperformance by Protoss below the parameters I have identified.
On a sad note, it will be difficult for me to pick up much to "imitate" from the GSL super tournament. Unfortunately, most of the Protoss games have been terribly one-sided and not really worth watching (for my part, it is starting to look brutal and somewhat bleak out there for the pros). However, I remain optimistic that one of the remaining Protoss players will show us something new and spectactular to stop the rot. My hopes are now pinned on SlayerS_Alicia (who, for those of you who don't know, more or less gave us the aggressive 3gate expand which revolutionised PvT a few months ago).
Tom please add at least one picture to your articles so it has a thumbnail!
I was offering my opinion because it was asked of me to give one. I was just telling my own personal experience of Ventral Sacs giving me fits, in no where was I calling anything OP. But all I get from you is insults and you talking out of your ass about a level of play you wouldn't have a clue about.
1. You have no clue what a multi-prong attack is do you? I can stop 20 overlords if it was the only thing coming at me.
2. Do you honestly think 20 medivacs flying towards your base is the same as 20 overlords flying towards your base? Maybe you want to start thinking about resources like food/building time/availability/opportunity cost.
3. Having the ability to scout = map control. Once you take that third base you give away that map control. Regardless, I am still able to scout through hallucinated phoenix, well placed units and usually can see things coming at me before they do.
4. You need to read, I didn't say nerf Ventral Sacs, I was asked a question, my answer was that If I HAD to nerf something that would be it because Ventral Sacs is what gives me the most trouble.
5. Yes I need to get better, it's just a little weird being told so by somewhat who is so ridiculously ignorant.
When I quoted you you didn't have the "I don't find this OP" part in there, as per my quote. But now you make me look like really arrogant.
Quote:
Because units that have no food cost, very low cost creates a threat that requires about half your army to deal with. When the Zerg player subsequently throws cheap Roaches at your third and natural at same time whilst baited your army to your main. Goodluck getting that deathball up. With super high levels of insight, unit management and control, it is possible to defend well enough to get your deathball up before Zerg has a deathball busting unit composition.
Medivacs can be dealt by mineral dumping on some zealots or making 4 stalkers to prevent a drop. Zealots against Zerg units? 4 Stalkers to target fire 20 overlords heading your way (with no idea if theres any units in there)?
This is what you had posted when I replied. It makes you look ignorant to me.
1. Obviously. This is where I said that scouting is important.
2. No. There is a world of difference, not to mention the fact Medivacs can heal, Medivacs can also carry 8 slots. 8 Marines dropped then stimmed and right clicked on a tech structure can take it out in seconds. same as a probe line. I don't get what this difference is? Anyways. You would only need 10(20 supply) worth of Medivacs to be the same. They cost a little more, but can carry twice as much as an overlord, can heal and are very cost effective. And then now you see, a reactored starport or two can easily get these up.
3. I don't get why you have trouble with overlords drops then if you can see things coming at you?
4. I did read it, and I re-read it and still stick by my words. Did you read my post? As to your first point I clearly covered it.
5. I may be ignorant because your post came off ignorant.
4. It was a reply to Benji that had nothing to do with you, you come in completely out of context and call me a whiner because I am explaining to Benji the mindset that he was looking for, I was not looking for answers or having a cry. You tried to make me look like I was doing so, stay out of it.
1. What I'm saying is scouting is irrelevant. Just because you see ovelords coming does not completely stop the damage it does, because it requires a large amount of units to actually deal with them, that is a large amount of units that is unable to deal with the multipronged attack hitting your natural and 3rd at the same time with no garantee that there are actually units in the overlords, but we have to prepare for them regardless.
2. You just don't get it. Consider how much difficult it is to get medivacs as opposed to overlords, and consider the opportunity cost/time/resource/effectiveness of making 20 medivacs as opposed to 20 overlords and whether you want to "fake" a drop with them.
3. Same as point one, seeing them come does not prevent the damage they may do. I never said they were OP or anything, merely that they are extremely hard to deal with and it would be something that I PERSONALLY would REWORK. Does multi-pronged attacks happen in Silver?
5. My post was not intended for you. You are in no position to call the views of someone who has spent much more time on this game ignorant when the post was not even intended for you in the first place.
I am done arguing with you because I have to make myself think like a Silver player in order to put things into perspective to explain things to you, which you will probably ignore and continue to try to lecture me anyway, I'm done.
Last edited by nGenLight; Tue, 7th-Jun-2011 at 5:41 PM.
There are poker forums where you get insta banned for arguing about low-stakes poker hands if you are a micro stakes player, or high stakes poker hands if you are a mid-stakes player etc... After reading the majority of the monk vs light posts you can kinda see their point -.-;;
That being said, light I'm not trying to come off like an asshole, from your posts it just seemed like you were more whining and waiting for someone else to solve the problem for you and complain until that happens rather than seek it out for yourself, so sorry for judging it wrong. Also I obviously never meant to insinuate that you have never gone past 2 bases in your life don't be a moron -.-, I did however say that from what I ever saw (which is mostly tournament games streamed and games you played against me, both pvp and pvz) you did a lot more 1-2 base heavy agression stuff, and in tournaments players generally tend to do what they're most comfortable with... And this was going back 3 months, long before this new notion of protosses are struggling to take 3rds against zerg came about.
Fwiw I'm not saying the only thing you should be doing is laddering hardcore and trial & erroring non-stop until you find something, but posting on a community forum where you're easily the best (active :P) protoss player seeking protoss advice is a kinda retarded outlet... ask other teammates around your level to suggest shit, because on here (and every forum, this isn't a go at sc2sea either) you're just going to get the opinion of the kids who honest to god believe "Yo I actually have sick good game knowledge, like, i know EVERYTHING about the game and strategy because i can tell you how much hp every unit has and like, I know that i should be building workers all the time and stuff, it's just I dont have very good mechanics, but seriously, I know everything else, so heres what you need to do: ***Insert random theorycraft bullshit***"
Also just my 2c on the overall "What needs to be done" thing, I don't think any sort of patching should be done at all until it is very, VERY clear a race is struggling, and I mean more than just protoss hasn't had a good tournament placing in 2 months.
A new chart was just released, I took a few minutes to add some notes on when some specific balance batches came out, so you can try and understand any changes brought about by the patch. Because the chart is not very well labeled, patch dates are approx.
The gsl results are skewed because as the rounds go on great zergs like Losira, Nestea end up playing a bunch of bad protoss in comparison like Inca and Anypro which they way outclass.
The result comes from the few zerg making it far so a very high percentage of zerg games are from these top zerg playing against bad protoss.
lolol ninja think! what ur saying isn't logical at all, thats like saying "if you take out MC's wins, protoss is actually doing alot worse, therefore the graph is inaccurate!"
EDIT: if you look at that way, GSL 3 where all the toss bombed out early, MC accounted for >50% of total protoss wins lol... and protoss still did the worst in GSL 3 overall. i haven't got the data to prove it but its about a good estimation if u actually watched all of GSL 3.
Last edited by SnoWPanda; Wed, 8th-Jun-2011 at 1:54 AM.
A new chart was just released, I took a few minutes to add some notes on when some specific balance batches came out, so you can try and understand any changes brought about by the patch. Because the chart is not very well labeled, patch dates are approx.
Protoss only being down a few percent doesn't make the race under powered by any means. I think they're relatively balanced as compared to Zerg. Terran are doing pretty well for this month too. In the end, I think all 3 races from this chart are pretty balanced.
Slayers_Alicia is the only Protoss through to the Round of 16 in the GSL Super Tournament, with a gimmicky 7 gate timing attack and a 1base void ray all-in. DT expand failed miserably.
Today, Korean negative balance sentiments towards Protoss (see link in my OP) are at the highest level since the beginning of December last year.
***
@ Benji - The TLPD International Tournament data does appear to be the best case that the races are approaching balance (as the earlier TLPD data also showed, and as referred to in my OP). On one view, it still shows Protoss is the slightly weakest race at that level of play.
What I find interesting, though, is the low number of Protoss players qualifying for the finals in these tournaments. The slightly lower win % appears to translate into a dramatically lower proportion of Protoss players qualifying for higher rounds. I am not sure why this is so.
What I think we can say about the TLPD International Tournament data is that it apparently shows a slight trend towards underperformance by Protoss, but the apparent trend is less pronounced than that from the Korean Tournament data, the "qualification" data (NASL, MLG etc), and the Korean, NA, EU and SEA GM League data. The fact that the trend in the TLPD data is less pronounced than in other data sources (but nonetheless present) would not lead me to reject the hypothesis that Protoss is underpowered in high level play.
Last edited by Tom; Wed, 8th-Jun-2011 at 10:33 AM.
The gsl results are skewed because as the rounds go on great zergs like Losira, Nestea end up playing a bunch of bad protoss in comparison like Inca and Anypro which they way outclass.
The result comes from the few zerg making it far so a very high percentage of zerg games are from these top zerg playing against bad protoss.
Sorry, are you saying Korean Code S are bunch of bad protoss? Look at MLG top 3, obviously Protoss is the weakest race atm.
Even the best protoss in the world can managed a 3rd in MLG. Your above comments makes no sense.
Sorry, are you saying Korean Code S are bunch of bad protoss? Look at MLG top 3, obviously Protoss is the weakest race atm.
I fail to understand how having top 3 of a tournament be the 3 different races is a sign of inbalance. If anything, it shows the game isnt that bad (infact quite good balance wise). If MC placed first, and Losira 3rd, would you say that Zerg was weak? No you wouldn't, you only look at the data from the point of view that makes your race look weak (and thus is an excuse as to why you aren't ranked higher than you are).
@Tom, The data does show that Protoss is a little behind, but I want to remind you about earlier this year, around Jan/Feb when Zerg had a 40% win (the lowest representation of all the races in sc2 to date) and Zerg players were crying, saying we were UP. Protoss and Terran responded with 'learn to adapt' and we clawed back to 48%ish before the Infestor went live. There have been plenty of GSL's as well when Zerg were signifncatly underrepresented (1 Zerg in the Ro8 of March, Lowest representation of race all through GSL May), its the nature of tournaments.
Give it time, players will figure it out. One thing you can try is getting a trial or second account and play some Zerg or Terran (whatever you have trouble with) and find out what annoys you from the other side of the coin, to give you some perspective. It will improve your play.
@Tom, The data does show that Protoss is a little behind, but I want to remind you about earlier this year, around Jan/Feb when Zerg had a 40% win (the lowest representation of all the races in sc2 to date) and Zerg players were crying, saying we were UP. Protoss and Terran responded with 'learn to adapt' and we clawed back to 48%ish before the Infestor went live. There have been plenty of GSL's as well when Zerg were signifncatly underrepresented (1 Zerg in the Ro8 of March, Lowest representation of race all through GSL May), its the nature of tournaments.
One data set shows Protoss "a little" behind. The rest of data shows them a lot behind.
The "underrepresentation" issue for Zerg is slightly different. With Protoss, it has generally been the most played race, whereas Zerg has generally had a low % of players. You would therefore expect, all else being equal, that you would see a higher proportion of Protoss than Zerg in tournaments. Think about it this way, if only 20% of players used Zerg (which is close to the actual propotion, although it is increasing) then you would expect only 1 in 5 GSL players to be Zerg. It wouldn't indicate balance, only that there is a lower player pool to begin with. Contrast this to 35% of players using Protoss but only 1 in 16 making it through in the GSL. This does indicate that there may be a disadvantage in playing Protoss.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benji
One thing you can try is getting a trial or second account and play some Zerg or Terran (whatever you have trouble with) and find out what annoys you from the other side of the coin, to give you some perspective. It will improve your play.
I have not mentioned my own play or any trouble I'm having. Thanks for the tip though ;p I barely have time to log on more than 1 or 2 days a week as it is, let alone starting multiple accounts!
Last edited by Tom; Wed, 8th-Jun-2011 at 11:46 AM.
Are you referring to the most recent graph that I linked to? Because after that was released all other data is outdated, and that graph doesn't show that big of a difference.
Are you referring to the most recent graph that I linked to? Because after that was released all other data is outdated, and that graph doesn't show that big of a difference.
Sorry could you please explain why "all other data is outdated"? As far as I can see, that graph is one of several data sets.
Last edited by Tom; Wed, 8th-Jun-2011 at 11:59 AM.
Its the most recent data which should be used, as the discussion is wether Protoss is UP Now, and not 2 months ago.
The graph of Korean games, that shows 70% ZvP has such a small sample size that it should be taken with a grain of salt. The data linked above not only has a largeer sample size, but is also the most recent. If you want to pick and choose which data to use to suit your arguement however, then its simply a bias discussion.
Quote:
I have not mentioned my own play or any trouble I'm having. Thanks for the tip though ;p I barely have time to log on more than 1 or 2 days a week as it is, let alone starting multiple accounts!
Ah kk, np. Its still good advice for other Protoss that are struggling. I had issues with my ZvP and ZvT, so I got a second account and played some from the opposite side of the matchup, and it really helps.
Last edited by Benji; Wed, 8th-Jun-2011 at 12:59 PM.
Its the most recent data which should be used, as the discussion is wether Protoss is UP Now, and not 2 months ago.
The graph of Korean games, that shows 70% ZvP has such a small sample size that it should be taken with a grain of salt. The data linked above not only has a largeer sample size, but is also the most recent. If you want to pick and choose which data to use to suit your arguement however, then its simply a bias discussion.
This. I mentioned in my MLG post that that PlayXP link only had 300 or so people voting on it. Hardly a sample size worth mentioning. The chart however shows that all races are around the same number. I could see you saying Protoss was underpowered IF they were <42% winrate. But 47% is pretty good in my opinion.
@Tom you're sampling Zerg being a low populated race(20%), and protoss(35%) being a higher one. This is a double-bladed sword in your argument as you can say that protoss have a lot more mirrors then zerg do, so it's only natural that the numbers get smaller as the tournaments go on.
I don't want to overstep any lines here, since I'm relativly new to the SC scene, but;
I'm pretty damn sure there would have been threads just like this one when BroodWar was in it's infancy.
It's all just a matter of time. Sc2 has only been out for a little while, and players (Pro and noob alike) are still trying to work out all the subtle little things that took BW players 12 years to figure out.
Sure, currently the meta-game suggests that Protoss arn't performing very well, but that will change. Someone will figure out how to steamroll the Zergy forces that are causing so much trouble right now, and the paradigm will shift back the other way.
It's the nature of a strategy game.
Personally, (and Protoss players please don't take any offense to this) if people spent more time actually playing the game and trying to figure out some way around the perceived imbalance, rather than writing about it on forums, then the meta-game would shift even faster.
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The Zerg formerly known as [TA]Ridiculisk.500
TAhackdZ.379
Last edited by TAhackdZ; Wed, 8th-Jun-2011 at 1:33 PM.
Reason: wanted to bold main point
I like that main point Ridiculisk. Also one of the underlying themes I had in mind when writing my article on balance.
However, I'm seeing one comment abit too often, will paraphrase it but it has been repeated many times in different words:
"Protoss players should stop complaining about balance and spend the time to actually play and think of ways to improve their metagame"
Or to put it more succinctly but crudely: "Shut up and stop wasting your time, use it to play more'.
I think this isn't a fair comment to make. I am all for balance discussion, it's good for mental exercise and critical thinking, just that it needs to be done with the correct mindset and framework.
People who make these balance claims obviously love the game, so they love talking about the game as well. Instead of shooting down their balance claims without even assessing them, we should try to understand their perspective (and supply counterarguments if we disagree)
And remember that they are starting these discussions because they love the game like us! (And probably can't play whereever they are, at the moment )
Comments like the one I've quoted seem to just want to shut down the discussion without actually thinking through it. I urge everyone to not keep saying that, but if you disagree, explain why! Not just 'oh nothing's wrong you're just whining'.
Its the most recent data which should be used, as the discussion is wether Protoss is UP Now, and not 2 months ago.
The graph of Korean games, that shows 70% ZvP has such a small sample size that it should be taken with a grain of salt. The data linked above not only has a largeer sample size, but is also the most recent. If you want to pick and choose which data to use to suit your arguement however, then its simply a bias discussion.
What I'm trying to say is:
- NA GM League Data is current as at 3 June 2011
- EU GM League Data is current as at 3 June 2011
- Korean GM League Data is current as at 3 June 2011
- Previous Korean GSL Data is current as at May
- Korean GSL Super Tournament Data is current as at today
- MLG racial qualification % is current as at today
- NASL racial qualification % is current as at today
- TLPD international tournament win% data is current as at the last few days (not sure exactly when the "cut off" was for the graph).
You seem to be suggesting the TLPD data, which shows "only" a slight underperformance by Protoss, should "trump" all the other data sets. One reason seems to be that it is "current". I would suggest it is no more "current" than the other data sets I have looked at. It is clearly an important data source, but I don't think it is valid to look at it and ignore all the other (current) data sources.
@Ridiculisk: I enjoy talking about these sort of facts and figures in the same way as others like to kick around data/studies proving or disproving things like climate change. Its always hard to work out whether there is a real trend or if we're just imagining things (I often have to debate these sorts of issues in my professional life). I'm personally quite comfortable playing Protoss at the moment, but I find these possible trends interesting. At the same time, it has irked me for a while that Zerg (and even sometimes Terran) have been complaining of being underpowered lately when this really doesn't seem to be justified by the data.
After winning my 1000th win as zerg a couple of days ago, I decided to switch to protoss. I will update whether protoss is really underpowered in first person. Your welcome.
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