[crAzerk]

Ok I'm going to lay out some things before Mafia decides to kill me at night for blocking their kill of mustapasta and for possibly getting close to the answer. But if I do get killed, don't interpret my death as me getting close to the answer and hence they had to kill me okay, that may be what the actual Mafia WANTS you to think and hence trying to trick you.
If you didn't get this paragraph nvm just skip it and read on.

People left:
1. Next_rim - Voted for mustapusta
2. cruxis - Voted for Bakainu
3. pokerface - Voted for Rorschach
4. Rorschach - Voted for mustapusta
5. LennX - Voted for mustapusta
6. craZerk - Voted for HDPhoenix
7. Paroxysm - Voted for Bakainu
8. mustapusta - Voted for Bakainu
9. HDPhoenix - Voted for Pokerface
10. PoisoN
11. Zanderax - Voted for Bakainu
12. GGnoRe

I'm really hoping that these two inactives are just Citizens with no role, because if they have a role but they're not reading this post this post is entirely pointless.

I think Poison should be harmless because his original vote seemed random and not coordinated with another Mafia. (he voted for nard)
GGnoRe voted musta, but so did many others so I don't want to interpret anything from this.

We have a Vigilante and an Informant, and there's a chance one of them may die by the end of this night. So they need to use their abilities now!

Informant - Find out if mustapasta is mafia! This is the biggest debate atm and once this is resolved we can move on to cover more ground. It's wasting too much time guessing around about this, find out for sure, and if he is, get Vigilante to kill him the next morning!
So the next daytime lynch, DON'T target musta anymore and try to find someone else to lynch, because the Vigilante will be able to kill musta if he IS mafia during the day anyway. (Assuming both Vigi and Informant stay alive)

Vigilante - You need to use your kill whenever you can !(of course with appropriate info, like the abovementioned), remember you have 2 kills but you cannot use both in one day. With Vigilante, the citizens have power, but once you get sniped by Mafia the mafia controls the game.

12 players left, after tonight it'll be 10 players left.
That means there are only 7 non-Mafia left. (possibly minus 2 inactives, so 5 citizens)
The next vote is crucial.
(will post my suspicions later in an hour++ )

[mustapusta]

Just a question benji, do if a joker and a town were tied, does it mean the joker never gets lynched?
Because i want to win the game and yell "NEVER SAY DIE"

[GGnoRe]

i vote for mustapusta! rawr! once he is dead i will start voting more seriously. UNTIL THEN DIE MUSTA!

[Benji]

Originally Posted by GGnoRe

i vote for mustapusta! rawr! once he is dead i will start voting more seriously. UNTIL THEN DIE MUSTA!

3 hours late bro

[crAzerk]

Clues:

1) HDPhoenix - He's either a Mafia playing the game very intelligently or a Citizen.

We don't even know our roles yet! I vote for Mustapusta since 13 is my favorite number

Seemingly didn't receive any PMs, or was pretending that he didn't. Seemed like a genuine response to me, so my gut is he's Citizen. Of course I may be wrong, and if he wins as Mafia hats off to him.

2) cruxis - should be Citizen

What gives you the impression he's Mafia? Day 1 usually results in no useful information.

(This was referring to Deathsfang making a comment about pokerface being Mafia, which I'm going to assume is entirely nonsense because DF is Mafia (unless pokerface is the other Mafia family) )
If I was a Mafia, I wouldn't bother intervening with such comments if they targeted Citizens. Of course, unless pokerface was Mafia and cruxis was trying to defend him.

But pokerface didn't seem like he was in any danger, so it is a pointless defence.
By the abovementioned logic,
3) pokerface = Citizen (or the other Mafia family, which is less likely)

4) Rorschach - possibly Mafia
His whole post ending in

I also expect the second tort person to be Crazerk HDPheonix or GGnore.

Now I can't say much about GGNore, since he is inactive.
And by above logic, HDPhoenix shouldn't be mafia (unless a pro one)
And I know I am not a Mafia.

Therefore, Rorschach is trying to draw suspicion on 3 citizens. Mafia-behavior? Perhaps. Not conclusive of course.

5) Paroxysm - likely Citizen

How do we know that you are not mafia, and are just making musta look like the bad guy to cover your own tracks? Musta has put forward several good arguments while yours/next_rim's are rather mediocre in comparison. All of your arguments seem to be accusing him of being the mafia based on the first round. You have made me suspicious of you Mr Baka. vote changed to Bakainu

From this post as well as his other posts, he just seems like a guy who enjoys playing deductive games and is joining in the discussion heartily (like me). That was the vibe I got at least.
Of course it's possible he's Mafia and is doing this to pretend, but unlikely.


Everyone else I can't get a decent vibe off their posts despite going through the 8 pages of this thread, so I shan't make any suggestions on them.

OH right, how about mustapasta?
TBH, I really have no idea about this.
His reason for voting late seems legit as there was a PC fair that took place in Singapore this past weekend. He ended up in 2 tiebreakers which led everyone to suggest that he's definitely Mafia, since the odds of him surviving 2 tiebreakers is supposedly unlikely if he wasn't.
Maybe a final example will clarify this problem:

A popular brain teaser :
A coin is tossed 10 times in a row, and it lands heads every single time.
On the 11th toss, what's the odds that it'll land heads again?

+ [The answer is...] +

50%. Because the odds of a coin landing heads is 50% every time, regardless of previous events. Google for this problem for a longer explanation if you dont' get it

By similar logic, a person surviving multiple tiebreakers does NOT have increased chance of being mafia/citizen. Multiple tiebreakers are independent events, just like multiple coinflips. (In fact, they ARE multiple coinflips)

Once again, I'm not trying to defend mustapasta or anything here, I'm hoping the Informant+Vigilante will get to the bottom of this before the next night time, and that the Citizens don't waste another vote on a non-issue. (Since Vigilante can kill mustapasta if he is Mafia, assuming Vigilante is alive after tonight)

[LennX]

Just wondering, how many pairs of lovers are there in the game?

[ToRDeathsFang]

Theres just the 1 pair

[EveRorschach]

You forgot to include yourself in the list of possible mafia Crazerk, considering you fought harder to keep musta alive than musta actually did. :P YOu pretty much say "oh it could be these 5 people" yet when the most evidence is pointing at Musta (still, I might add) you say "TBH, I really have no idea about this."


What? lol, it wouldn't surprise me if its you and musta as the other family members! But I think I'm in for sleeping with the fishes tonight anyway.

[LennX]

I'm just hoping that somehow someway both the mafia family will lynch each other.

[crAzerk]

I already stated from the start that I'm not defending mustapasta in any way. I just cannot stand it when people use faulty logic to deduce things. And also, I did ask the Informant to check on musta and why would I do that if me and musta were mafia.

And if I really WAS mafia with musta, would I be so doggone OBVIOUS in defending him? Sheesh. There are other more subtle methods to do so (which I will hopefully use in future games when I AM Mafia) rather than put myself as a big bullseye.

Anyway, I'm expecting to get hit by Mafia by the end of tonight, so good luck figuring out the rest of it

I'm just hoping that somehow someway both the mafia family will lynch each other.

This would be awesome Would be hilarious if it really did happen.. Odds of this goes up as the player numbers go down too

[mustapusta]

I see rorschach defending himself only when accused. Were you perhaps trying to go for a low profile?

[GGnoRe]

im a little inactive cos i have an exam in a couple of hours. haha. probably why i missed 1 vote. but i think people who are overzealous in their defence of another are probably mafia. unless they are the informant and know that another person is actually safe. for some reason i get the feeling that crazerk is probably not a citizen hmm.

[crAzerk]

Originally Posted by GGnore

but i think people who are overzealous in their defence of another are probably mafia.

Originally Posted by crazerk

I already stated from the start that I'm not defending mustapasta in any way. I just cannot stand it when people use faulty logic to deduce things. And also, I did ask the Informant to check on musta and why would I do that if me and musta were mafia.

Originally Posted by crazerk

And if I really WAS mafia with musta, would I be so doggone OBVIOUS in defending him? Sheesh. There are other more subtle methods to do so (which I will hopefully use in future games when I AM Mafia) rather than put myself as a big bullseye.

In fact one of the methods I think will be quite good for Mafia is to actually go 'inactive' and hence stay out of everyone's radar, only to surface in the crucial rounds (e.g. next few), since in the first few rounds everyone is just shooting randomly anyway.


Anyway,

Originally Posted by mustapasta

I see rorschach defending himself only when accused. Were you perhaps trying to go for a low profile?

Rorschach first made an accusation after day 1, already pointing at some other people as I've mentioned, before himself was accused of anything.That's not to say that Rorschach is innocent, as I've already outlined in my post above.

+ [and the wise guys will say:] +

Oh look! crAzerk is defending rorschach! they must be mafia!
NO -_- (not me at least, can't say the same about him) I just can't stand faulty logic. And this is another instance of it.

And if anyone is going to try to draw on the fact 'how come crazerk is talking so much? zomg! suspicious! mafia!', you re clearly not aware of how much I am lurking the forums the entire day and how active I am in other areas as well. Just check the 'Users Online' thing on the front page.

[Benji]

Still waiting on a/some of these NIGHTTIME PM's, Night ends in a few hours, and missing one hit or Informat Question is hardly ever a good thing.

[LennX]

But missing a hit is good for the citizens/joker. :P

[Benji]

Originally Posted by LennX

But missing a hit is good for the citizens/joker. :P

And missing an Informat PM is bad for the Citizens, not saying who has and hasn't submitted PM's however.

[crAzerk]

Yea, if Informant doesn't read what I said above and ask accordingly the next vote is going to be another squandered one sigh.

[Next_rim]

Waiting patiently on mafia kills before I comment <.<

crAzek,

Your observation regarding the mathematical odds of some1 being mafia are correct. However, if you look at any normal distribution, my guts are telling me that a scenario with three different citizens being voted for up to a tie in two samples, where same citizen is voted up twice in a row, all within a shrinking population, is not exactly close to a mean scenario.

You actually got me interested, I'm now willing to do some statistical analysis of this case if I have time later in the day. Numbers are better than words anyway

[crAzerk]

But can you assume a normal distribution in this case? Or is such an assumption not valid? It's not as if we have a large sample size.
Anyway I know about statistical analysis and stuff because of some modules i've taken in school but I don't quite get what you're trying to say here:

" However, if you look at any normal distribution, my guts are telling me that a scenario with three different citizens being voted for up to a tie in two samples, where same citizen is voted up twice in a row, all within a shrinking population, is not exactly close to a mean scenario."

You may want to rephrase it, perhaps more cogently, thanks

[Benji]

Rorschach has been killed by the Tortellini Family and the Rossellini Family. He was a Citizen


1. Next_rim
2. Deathsfang - *DEAD* Killed by Lover (Tortellini Family/Lover)
3. BakaInu - *DEAD* Killed by Citizens (Citizen)
4. cruxis
5. pokerface
6. Rorschach - *DEAD* Killed by Both Families (Citizen)
7. SONATA - *DEAD* Killed by the Rossellini Family (Citizen)
8. Aean(: - *DEAD* Killed by Citizens (Citizen/Lover)
9. LennX
10. craZerk
11. Paroxysm
12. nard - *DEAD* Killed by the Tortellini Family (Citizen)
13. mustapusta
14. HDPhoenix
15. PoisoN
16. Zanderax
17. GGnoRe

It is now Daytime. Daytime ends in 48 hours or once everyone has voted.