[Tom]

Some data

A poster on TeamLiquid.net recently pointed out the following distribution in the Korean Grandmaster league (which I posit represents the most competitive ladder):

81 players in Grandmaster. 40.5% of the total
64 players in Grandmaster. 32% of the total
45 Players in Grandmaster. 27% of the total
1 Player in Grandmaser. 0.5% of the total

Top Ten: 9 s, one and no .

Top Twenty: 15 , two and three .

Overall race distribution in 1v1 Korean ladder

It makes little sense to analyse the proportion of races in the Korean GM league in isolation from the overall race distribution. To illustrate this point, if 40.5% of all Korean players used terran, the fact that 40.5%of Korean GMs played simply means terran is"batting average".

I did a search of www.sc2ranks.com this morning using the following parameters: Region=Korean, Team=1v1, Activity=Last 30 days. I did this search to eliminate the "noise" in the data from inactive and team game players (in other words, I am only interested in the data for active 1v1 players).

The overall distribution for active 1v1 players on the Korean server is:

10.1%
34.8%
34.8%
20.4%

Analysis of the Korean data

The most striking feature of the data is the substantial under-representation of players in Korean GM league (0.5% of Korean GMs play random, compared to 10.1% of active Korean 1v1 players). Korean players are an extraordinary 20 times less likely to be in GM league compared to the general Korean 1v1 population.

While has the lowest proportion of players overall (excluding random), statistically they are the most over-represented in the Korean GM league. 27% of Korean GMs play , compared to 20.4% of active Korean 1v1 players overall. The data suggests Korean zerg players are 1.3 times more likely to be a GM compared to active Korean 1v1 players generally.

are also proportionally over-represented in the Korean GM League, with 40.5% of Korean GMs playing , compared to 34.8% of the Korean 1v1 population. This data suggests Korean terran players are 1.15 more likely to be a GM compared to active Korean 1v1 players generally.

are slightly under represented in the Korean GM League, with 32% of Korean GMs playing compared to 34.8% of the general Korean 1v1 population. This data suggests Korean protoss players are 0.92 times as likely to be a GM compared to active Korean 1v1 players generally.

The top 10 has a very high representation of (9 out of 10 at the time of writing this), but I think it is difficult to say anything meaningful based on such a small population.

Conclusion

There are many data sets one can look at in examining balance issues. It seems unlikely to me any of these will provide the final "answer". However, to the extent that it has become fashionable and indeed tacitly acceptable for zerg and terran players to complain about protoss being "overpowered", there is little in the above data to support these complaints.

Whilst the above data suggests Protoss is statistically the weakest race amongst Korean GMs, the result should be treated with caution for several reasons. Most obviously, the same analysis for GM Leagues in the other regions may paint an entirely different picture. As stated at the start, I have looked at Korean because my hypothesis is Korea is the most competitive ladder. I would really like to see similar analysis for the other ladders (I have run out of time to do it in this post!)

The second reason for caution is the Korean results suggest Protoss is the weakest race at the Korean GM level. It is possible the picture is completely different at the Master and Diamond level, for example. The above data suggests that with very good mechanics (as possessed by a Korean GM), Zerg are the strongest race. However, with the mechanics of a Diamond player, it may be that Protoss are stronger. In the absence of data, this is just conjecture.

To the extent that players attribute their perceptions about game balance to their own (anecdotal) experience, I would caution against such an approach. This type of analysis is most likely to be affected by personal biases (and people tend to remember and attach great importance to their losses, to the extent where conclusions not based on solid data risk being distorted).

Finally, in relation to recent Blizzard comments in relation to Protoss warp gate times, it is interesting that Blizzard's primary aim appears to be to alter PvP, and they are concerned that the changes should not make Protoss "weak" in the early game against the other races. We can infer that Blizzard are not particularly concerned about Protoss balance (presumably based on their own analysis of mass ladder data).

Thanks to: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/view...opic_id=216212



*** Update - data for SEA as at 27 April 2011 ***

On 27 April 2011 I performed the exact same analysis for SEA as set out above. Of the 196 players in GM League:

60 players (30.6%)
67 players (34.2%)
62 players (31.6%)
7 players (3.6%)

The overall distribution for 1v1 players (activity = last 30 days) on SEA is:

24.9%
33.9%
32%
9.2%

Discussion of SEA results

As was the case for Korea, in SEA zerg are the most significantly overrepresented race in the top 200, relative to the proportion of zerg players overall (30.6% of GMs are zerg, compared to 24.9% of active 1v1 players overall).

Random is again significantly underrepresented (3.6% of GMs are random, compared to 9.2% of active 1v1 players overall).

Protoss and terran are both very slightly overrepresented (the difference is 0.4% for terran and 0.3% for protoss).

Comparison of SEA and Korea

Overall, the results for SEA are similar in relation to the significant overrepresentation of zerg and the significant underreprentation of random in GMs league.

However, the results differ significantly in relation to terran and protoss. The proportions terran and protoss players in SEA GMs league is very close to the overall proportion of active 1v1 players, in contrast to Korea where terran was significantly overrepresented and protoss slightly underrepresented.

The consistent trend is random and zerg. Zerg players are significantly more likely to be GMs on both servers, whilst random players are significantly less likely to be GMs on both servers. However, the difference from the average is somewhat smaller for SEA than for Korea. This is consistent with nirvana's hypothesis below that zerg is the strongest race with very good mechanics - ie, if we assume the general skill level on SEA is lower, it follows from nirvana's hypothesis that zerg is less likely to pull ahead of the other races. It probably also follows that random get a better "trot" on a less skilled server.

The big difference between SEA and Korea is terran. Terran were found to be significantly overrepresented amongst Korean GMs, but in SEA terran appears to be "batting average". This could possibly be explained by the theory that terran performs better amongst more mechanically "skilled" players, but I am not really sure. Conversely, the fact that protoss is performing better on SEA than on Korea may be consistent with the theory that protoss performs better amongst mechanically "poorer" players.

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Posting this image just so the article has a thumbnail, haha!

Quick Comments

nirvAnA:

excellent post, moved to articles