[nard]

all will be revealed if needed at the end of the round. if we can actually remember everything.

[DtorR]

My theory was correct then. Mafia if you shoot me you will just waste your chance of winning. Citizens Voting me won't benefit you at all as you can obviously see. Also CrAzerk is lying about been survivor since I am the sole survivor left.

[nard]

Oh. Night time btw. PM night time activities to Benji

[crAzerk]

My theory was correct then. Mafia if you shoot me you will just waste your chance of winning. Citizens Voting me won't benefit you at all as you can obviously see. Also CrAzerk is lying about been survivor since I am the sole survivor left.

I don't know where you got the idea that there are only 2 Survivors, as discussed before there could very well be 2 or more.

In addition, it seems like I have done too good a job in outlining why people shouldn't kill me as I'm a Survivor as now suddenly DtorR is trying to pretend to be one.

[DtorR]

LOL prove it CrAzerk. I know I can

For round 5 of sc2sea mafia...

you have been designated the role of... SURVIVOR

Please read the main post for more details of your role.

[crAzerk]

If only it was as easy as that, I could just screenshot the PM I got and post it here.
However, this is against the rules as said before in previous rounds of Mafia, so... :/

[pikk0n]

yikes... admins might want to step in here.

[Nobunaga]

It's also easy to photoshop the picture.

JUST SAYIN' LOL

[mustapusta]

Just before i get finished off, DeathsFang has said that "I think i am also the survivor". Now my vote has meaning if i survive ;_;

[Benji]

Typing Text into a post is pretty easy :P

Also posting of any screenshots is prohibited. Post, and die!

(And before anyone reads into this, I don't remember off the top of my head who is what, and haven't checked my list lately :P)

[crAzerk]

And you know Benji REALLY means it when he posts twice!

[Benji]

Sorry, I'm a little exhausted.

[pikk0n]

Benji's typical weekends. Best time to get lynched in the past few mafia rounds has been during weekends when you get the extra 12-24 hours to plead your case. Unfortunately, this time he has nard.... *shakes fist* My cheating days are now gone!

[crAzerk]

Just fooling around Benji xD

[Bugalugs McScruffin]

Originally Posted by pikk0n

Benji's typical weekends. Best time to get lynched in the past few mafia rounds has been during weekends when you get the extra 12-24 hours to plead your case. Unfortunately, this time he has nard.... *shakes fist* My cheating days are now gone!

It's pretty hard to cheat when you are already dead.

[Benji]

So I may already have all the PM's, but my sheet of who is who is at home... So you guys will have to wait until tonight until I post who is dead :P

[crAzerk]

Ok, since night votes are locked, it's time to look at certain things. This post is going to be a recap of everything that has happened so far, with some basic thoughts of mine.

Day 1
Chronological sequence of events

+ Show +

Zanderax votes pikk0n > cruxis votes pokerface > pikk0n votes Zanderax >
ThePandarine votes pikk0n > Lennx votes Doctor > Next_rim votes Lennx
souljah votes pikk0n > Dtorr votes Bugalugs > cruxis switches vote to Bakainu
Paroxysm votes Bugalugs > Smeg.void votes Zanderax > Baka votes Bugalugs
EveRorschach votes Bugalugs > snod votes bugalugs > crazerk votes smeg.void
lemminks votes bugalugs > mustapasta votes snod > Doctor votes pikk0n
bugalugs votes pikk0n > deshface votes deathsfang > nobunga votes pikk0n
skrawl votes bugalugs > pikk0n's long post about how he's the best mafia player ever > deathsfang votes deshface
Result - Bugalugs dies.

Analysis

+ Show +

There is this misconception that you can look at votestacking in day 1 and decide from there who is Mafia, since it's typical that Mafia will vote together.
However, think for a moment if YOU were Mafia. Would you do that? Certainly not. Back when I was Mafia I know my team more or less spread out their votes precisely to avoid this pattern.

HOWEVER, this pattern MAY arise if in the first round, your fellow Mafia member is under pressure. Naturally, one or two may just pretend to be 'hopping on the train' to vote someone else to save their fellow Mafia.

Up until Lemmink's vote (his was 5th on Bug), Bugalugs was clearly in the vote lead. Who then proceeded to vote stack on pikk0n? Doctor, Bugalugs, nobunga.
Suspicious? Perhaps.
(Note that I excluded people who placed a vote on pikk0n before the vote-train on Bugalugs, because it doesn't make sense to suspect them when it was really a random vote (no pre-existing factors/vote))

Night 1
Nobunga killed by Mafia (he is Mafia too) , pikk0n killed by Mafia (he is Arsonist), Lennx killed by Vigilante (he is Doctor)

Day 2
Sequence of events

+ Show +

mustapasta votes Deathsfang > snod votes mustapasta > smegvoid votes snod

cruxis votes Zanderax > deshface votes Zanderax > souljah votes Zanderax (All 3 people, deshface, cruxis and souljah claim their vote for Zand is because he voted for pikk0n, which as I've said before doesn't really make sense. If they really did want to do this, they should've voted Doctor, who was one of those who vote-stacked after Bugalugs was in danger)

next_rim votes Zanderax (he claims he votes as such as it's inevitable that Zand is going down, despite him believing in ties.) > Deathsfang votes cruxis > cruxis vote changes to next_rim (not buying the tying story)

next_rim defends his tying logic, also introduces a complex metaphor > Zanderax votes next_rim > crazerk votes smegvoid

Skrawl votes Bakainu > EveRorschach votes ThePandarine > Dtorr votes skrawl
Bakainu votes Skrawl >

Result - Zanderax gets voted out by majority. He was a vigilante.

Analysis

+ Show +

It could be just laziness in checking (didn't realize Zand was the original voter and not one of the vote-stackers) that led cruxis, dethface and souljah to make their votes for Zand. Then again, it could be that they (at least 1 or 2) are Mafia and are trying to pin something on an innocent person.
Next_rim? possible too. Any vote-stacker always draws suspicion to himself, if the rationale for his vote isn't quite clear.

This was the only apparent trend this round, the rest of the votes were not of significant interest.

It should also be noted that Doctor, Paroxysm and Lemminks all missed their day vote.

Night 2
Noone was killed at night.
The direct implication of this is that there are at least 2 Survivors in the game, and both Mafia teams hit one Survivor each.

Day 3
Sequence of Events

+ Show +

ThePandarine votes mustapasta > mustapasta votes snod > Doctor votes crazerk
Crazerk votes Doctor > snod votes mustapasta > next_rim votes cruxis
crazerk announces that he is Survivor and explains why you shouldn't kill him

cruxis votes doctor > Deathsfang votes cruxis > souljah votes cruxis
smegvoid votes cruxis > mustapasta changes vote to crazerk > deshface votes cruxis
Dtorr votes Deathsfang > cruxis announces he is Survivor > EveRorschach votes crazerk
Paroxysm votes Doctor > Skrawl votes Doctor > Lemminks votes cruxis > Dtorr announces he's Survivor
Bakainu votes scrawl > ThePandarine changes vote to Doctor > Doctor changes vote to cruxis

Result - cruxis is voted out, he was a Survivor (not quite)

Analysis

+ Show +

I found the sudden vote dump on cruxis highly odd. Deathsfang, souljah, smegvoid, deshface and Lemminks were part of this vote dump. Doctor's vote change is for obvious reasons (to save himself)

I found Lemminks' vote to be slightly suspicious as at that point, his vote only served to increase the buffer between Doctor and cruxis - if you were truly neutral and random you would just vote for one of the lesser votes people or make a random vote. This is NOT definitive of course.
The others who participated in the vote dump should not be ignored too.

It is worthwhile to note that from Day 2 on there are only 1 Tort 2 Ross Mafia members. This means one of the Mafia is working independently and the other are a pair.

So... who's suspicious now?

+ Show +

Dtorr claims to be Survivor - something which I DO believe.
This is because it makes no sense for a Mafia player to claim he is Survivor when he isn't even in trouble in the first place.
Citizen-aligned role claiming to be Survivor? Don't quite see the point either. It just puts a target on yourself.
Joker? Quite possible.

I've always had my suspicions on Doctor from the Day 1 vote pattern. Remember the vote stack on pikk0n from Nobunga, Bugalugs and Doctor? Note that Nobunga and Bugalugs were both Mafia BUT they were from different families. Thus they were not working together!
It seems like Doctor could very well be Nobunga or Bugalugs' Mafia partner.

deshface has been part of the vote train since Day 2. His vote on Day 1 was seemingly random but that could be because he was not from the same Mafia family as Bugalugs so didn't have to protect him. In Day 2 and 3 he hops on the random mob lynch without any real reason.

souljah is another 'vote train' player (part of vote train in Day 2 and 3), and importantly - he also voted for pikk0n in Day 1. He could be in the same family as Doctor and Bugalugs, for all we know.



All in all, the next 3 votes should be for Doctor, souljah then deshface.

With that, I'm probably going to get killed in the next night (if I'm not already killed tonight), so gl and have fun everyone I had fun doing this recap

Please do correct me if I made a factual error somewhere, may have done so as this was a long post :/

[Benji]

Crazerk has been killed by the Tortellini Family. He is a Citizen.

Paroxysm has been killed by the Rossellini Family and the Professional. He is the Joker. The Professional is a Winner, however will remain nameless until he/she is killed.

Doctor has been killed by a Vigilante. He is an Informat.

1) Deathsfang
2) SMEG.Void
3) BakaInu
4) souljah
5) EveRorschach
6) Paroxysm - Killed by The Rossellini Family (Joker)
7) Crazerk - Killed by the Tortellini Family (Citizen)
8) cruxis - Killed by Citizens. (Survivor)
9) Doctor - Killed by the Vigilante (Informat)
10) Zanderax - Killed by the Citizens (Vigilante)
11) ThePandarine
12) Dtorr
13) Skrawl
14) Lemminks
15) Snod
16) mustapusta
17) deshface
18) pikk0n - Killed by the Tortellini Family (Arsonist)
19) next_rim
20) nobunaga - Killed by The Rossellini Family (Tortellini Family)
21) LennX - Killed by the Vigilante (Doctor)
22) Bugalugs -Killed by Citizens (Rosellini Family)

It is now Daytime. Daytime will finish in 48 hours or once all votes are in.

[pikk0n]

LOL!! Good work, prof.

[crAzerk]

I'm dead!! whee

For those wondering why I bothered to come up with the whole Survivor bit - I felt that I would be a target of the Mafia, so I wanted to try to avoid that. Apparently didn't work. At least I got my long post out before I died