[LennX]

Both BakaInu and next_rim voted for mustapusta but mustapusta votes for Bakainu. hmmmmm this is interesting.

I change my vote from Next_rim to mustapusta.

[mustapusta]

Obviously the mafia members would vote together/change votes to a single town target. makes sense.
i'll just insert all the typical things a town would say before you guys make a mistake.
"I'm vital to the town's sucess"
"with me dead, town will probably have a lower chance to win"
"read carefully as to why they try pin me as mafia, because i survived a 50% tie, and make a molehill out of it."
"If aean survived instead of me, the mafia would also try pin it on aean as mafia, being SUSPICIOUS of hrim surviving."

[Paroxysm]

mustapasta makes a fair point in saying that if Aean survived instead of him, he would be seen as mafia. The fact of the matter is, I personally think (along with HDPhoenix and crAzer) that people are basing far too many assumptions off of day 1's events. Alternatively, Bakainu said this:

Originally Posted by BakaInu

It is highly likely that Musta is mafia now, since saving his ass means, getting tied vote and killing a citizen instead of himself, a.k.a. Mafia.

How do we know that you are not mafia, and are just making musta look like the bad guy to cover your own tracks? Musta has put forward several good arguments while yours/next_rim's are rather mediocre in comparison. All of your arguments seem to be accusing him of being the mafia based on the first round. You have made me suspicious of you Mr Baka. vote changed to Bakainu

[nirvAnA]

Things sure are heating up in this mafia game haha chill!

Quick Comments

EveRorschach:

srs business going on

[BaKaiNu]

Originally Posted by Paroxysm

mustapasta makes a fair point in saying that if Aean survived instead of him, he would be seen as mafia. The fact of the matter is, I personally think (along with HDPhoenix and crAzer) that people are basing far too many assumptions off of day 1's events. Alternatively, Bakainu said this:




How do we know that you are not mafia, and are just making musta look like the bad guy to cover your own tracks? Musta has put forward several good arguments while yours/next_rim's are rather mediocre in comparison. All of your arguments seem to be accusing him of being the mafia based on the first round. You have made me suspicious of you Mr Baka. vote changed to Bakainu

Except that, I myself know what role am I. Therefore, more votes killing me off will do the non-mafias no good. Who knows? But I sure love to be in the limelight.

[Paroxysm]

That's it, we can only settle this one way. 1v1!

Do you accept this challenge?

On a more serious note, I believe the killing of a non mafia character still benefits the mafia?

[BaKaiNu]

Challenge Accepted!

After my exam period. Regardless, it will certainly benefit the mafias. If you successfully lynched a mafia, 1 less person dies at night. Oh well, who knows. I'm getting lynched eitherways. We'll see how this progress, shall we? =)

[Benji]

1. Next_rim - Voted for mustapusta
2. Deathsfang - *DEAD* Killed by Lover (Tortellini Family/Lover)
3. BakaInu - Voted for mustapusta
4. cruxis - Voted for Bakainu
5. pokerface - Voted for Rorschach
6. Rorschach - Voted for mustapusta
7. SONATA - *DEAD* Killed by the Rossellini Family (Citizen)
8. Aean(: - *DEAD* Killed by Citizens (Citizen/Lover)
9. LennX - Voted for mustapusta
10. craZerk - Voted for HDPhoenix
11. Paroxysm - Voted for Bakainu
12. nard - *DEAD* Killed by the Tortellini Family (Citizen)
13. mustapusta - Voted for Bakainu
14. HDPhoenix - Voted for Pokerface
15. PoisoN
16. Zanderax - Voted for Bakainu
17. GGnoRe

4 Votes for mustapusta
4 Votes for Bakainu
1 Vote for Rorschach
1 Vote for Pokerface
1 Vote for HDPhoenix

Please check to make sure I got everything right, Musical votes is hard to follow sometimes.

Voting finishes at 6:30pm AEST Thurs.

[Next_rim]

I'm yet to see any decent argument against musta being mafia. Although, there is evidence that BakaInu could be mafia too, the chances are lower out of simple math. No logical argument at this point can deliver greater chances than 50/50 from a tie situation.

All of your arguments seem to be accusing him of being the mafia based on the first round.

Not really. It's based on the rule, which has nothing to do with round number. In a tie, there is a 50% chance that the remaining player is mafia. Better than random lynch based on random mumbo. Not to mention there are couple other factors pointing his way, like being late to vote day 1, and then making us wait forever for the night turn to end.

[crAzerk]

This post is not supporting anyone here, but I just disagree with the 'math' you did.

In a tie, there is a 50% chance that the remaining player is mafia.

If you look at this from the surface, 'he's either mafia or he's not' , so 50% seems to make sense.
However, if you're going to base on this statement, any random lynch will be a 50% chance of hitting mafia, since he is 'either mafia or not'. Clearly this isn't the case.

Let's just quote tiebreaker rules in case anyone forgot:

If it is between a Mafia and a Citizen, the Citizen is Killed
If it is between a Citizen and a Citizen, a Coin Flip resolves the tiebreaker
If it is between a Mafia and a Mafia, a Coin Flip resolves the tiebreaker.

I'll give a hypothetical scenario which makes the math easier - there are 4 players total, A B C and D. Let's say D is Mafia while the other 3 are citizens.
So let's say the votes caused A and D to be in a tie.

What's the odds that A is citizen? It is 3/4. Odds that D is Mafia? 1/4.

How about if it was B and C that ended up in a tie?
What's the odds that B is a citizen? It is STILL 3/4. Odds that C is a Mafia? STILL 1/4.

With this simple example you can see that the odds of a person being Mafia is entirely independent of whether he ends up in a tiebreaker scenario.

Thus I hope everyone sees that regardless of what happens in the tie breaker, nothing can be gleaned from it UNLESS the person who died in the tiebreaker was a MAFIA, which then is clear that the other tied person is Mafia too.

Once again, I am not supporting anyone or accusing anyone here, just pointing out faulty math. I know the Mafia or whoever are just waiting to pounce on posts like this to say 'aha! crazerk you support xxx you must be xxx' which is lame.

[mustapusta]

I'll like people to note that the time taken to reply doesn't mean anything at all. we got 2 full days to vote, no reason to hurry.
It's like the games i play on SC2 Mafia. Is there a difference if player A gives his defense 5 seconds later or earlier? even if his defense is the same? Use logic for your votes, not external factors which doesn't mean anything at all.

[Next_rim]

crAzerk,

That's cool and makes sense if you look at odds BEFORE the lynch. But musta ALREADY was in a tie and survived. Only two ways this could have happened. 50% chance it was mafia vs citizen, and he survived cuz he was mafia, and 50% chance that he simply got lucky with Benji's coinflip. Which DOES make it a 50% chance that musta is mafia.

[crAzerk]

That's cool and makes sense if you look at odds BEFORE the lynch. But musta ALREADY was in a tie and survived.

By saying this, you have shown that you entirely missed the point I was trying to make.

The odds of a person being mafia before and after being lynched or before and after surviving a tiebreaker remains the same. You can't base it on the fact that he survived to determine the odds of him being mafia, it doesn't make sense.

Your logic seems to imply that just because a person is 'selected' to be in part of the tiebreaker somehow modifies the odds of him being a mafia when the odds of him being mafia was already predetermined before the game began.

I don't know if it's because I'm not explaining it clearly enough or you're just not getting it. Maybe someone else who understands this can help me out.

[EveRorschach]

Crazerk, yes it's possible that musta is also a citizen, however there is no other information on ANY of the other players yet. This makes lynching musta (primarily based on him survivng last time) the best decision based on information that we have at the moment. Conversely, you could continue to argue it was just luck that he survives multiple ties, up until the last citizen dies and he's revealed as mafia. Yes, its pre-determined, but we don't have the information on him, yet

[crAzerk]

I understand where you all are coming from when you say this:

This makes lynching musta (primarily based on him survivng last time) the best decision based on information that we have at the moment.

But I have to caution you having 'faulty information' is as good as no information! It doesn't make sense to base my voting on something that is wrong to begin with, even if it's more than nothing. (Which is why I'm just throwing my vote this round)

I think what is more suspicious is people who are eager to put the spotlight on other people. Could they have a reason for this? (i.e. mafia) Or are they just eager players of the game? Who knows

[Next_rim]

I don't know if it's because I'm not explaining it clearly enough or you're just not getting it. Maybe someone else who understands this can help me out.

In the general population odds remain the same. However, surviving a tie is a very strong indicator of a possible mafia. Much stronger than any other factor, like post timings and vote patterns.

Besisdes, if musta is citizen (which I doubt), lynching him makes it just as random as lynching any1 else, since...odds are the same, you know.

We are just trying to make an informed decision.

[crAzerk]

Ok look at it this way - There is a higher chance of getting a Citizen vs Citizen tie than a Citizen vs Mafia tie. Thus surviving a tie (or being in a tie) is NOT a strong indicator of being a possible Mafia.
But I do agree that if he keeps surviving the tiebreakers, the odds of him being Mafia increases, NOT because he is surviving the tiebreakers, but by virtue of there being fewer and fewer citizens.

I don't see any point in arguing about this further because I have already pointed out what I wanted to say, that this 'information' is as good as misinformation, and the 'counterarguments' are not doing anything to contest the mathematical logic I've presented.

What I can say is that whoever adamantly pushes for this seems suspicious, as he seems to want to pin something on mustapasta (and himself go off unnoticed)

Once again, I'm NOT supporting mustapasta in making these arguments, just trying to ensure that everyone doesn't commit the mistake of relying on faulty logic. I'm indifferent to this vote, because I haven't seen any convincing information pointing to anyone atm, besides what I've mentioned in the paragraph above this.

[Benji]

Bakainu has been killed by the Citizens. He is a Citizen.

1. Next_rim - Voted for mustapusta
2. Deathsfang - *DEAD* Killed by Lover (Tortellini Family/Lover)
3. BakaInu - *DEAD* Killed by Citizens (Citizen)
4. cruxis - Voted for Bakainu
5. pokerface - Voted for Rorschach
6. Rorschach - Voted for mustapusta
7. SONATA - *DEAD* Killed by the Rossellini Family (Citizen)
8. Aean(: - *DEAD* Killed by Citizens (Citizen/Lover)
9. LennX - Voted for mustapusta
10. craZerk - Voted for HDPhoenix
11. Paroxysm - Voted for Bakainu
12. nard - *DEAD* Killed by the Tortellini Family (Citizen)
13. mustapusta - Voted for Bakainu
14. HDPhoenix - Voted for Pokerface
15. PoisoN
16. Zanderax - Voted for Bakainu
17. GGnoRe

4 Votes for mustapusta
4 Votes for Bakainu
1 Vote for Rorschach
1 Vote for Pokerface
1 Vote for HDPhoenix

PoisoN and GGnoRe have missed todays vote. If they miss the next day vote, they will be killed and banned for 2 games.

It is now Nighttime, Both mafia families and the Informat can now PM me their targets. Nighttime ends a short time after all 3 messages have been received or 24 hours have passed.

[mustapusta]

COME AT ME BRO
LYNCH ME

[cruxis]

I think Musta is the Joker.