[crAzerk]

Ok my take on what has happened so far:

1) cruxis with his deduction

+ [Read it here] +

Originally Posted by cruxis

Ok, just did some vote analysis.

The following people voted for Nard Day 1:
TGun
Pokerface
Zanderax
Paroxysm
Dandelion
Screwby
Bakainu
Jackwong
Rorschach
Pikkon
Skrawl
Sonata

Now, the following people voted for Zergtastic on Day 2:
Jackwong
Pokerface
Bakainu
Rorschach
Sonata

Now, comparing the lists results,the following players voted for both Nard and Zerg:
Jackwong
Pokerface
Bakainu
Rorschach
Sonata

Now, I don't think all of the mafia voted for Nard day 1, and it's unlikely they have all voted for Zerg as well. I believe that there's a good chance at least one of these players, possibly two, are Mafia.

Now, thinking back to game 2, Bakainu and Sonata were never very active, and usually voted in the same manner that they did here. And they were both citizens. I can't really remember the posting behaviour of the other players, which tends to make me think they were also not very active.

So, after all that, and considering everyone just seems to be random voting anyway, I will vote Pokerface, as he wasn't Mafia game 1 or 2, so his chances are greatly higher.

I think the motivation for the 1st vote was obvious, so it seems hasty to conclude anything from it.

It's a valid deduction, just not very sound imo. Could cruxis be Mafia and hence trying to cast suspicion on others early on? Possibly.

2) pikkon tries to force a tie

+ [Read more] +

Originally Posted by pikk0n

Interesting point, Cruxis but there are 5 mafias and 4 people with multiple votes (Zergtastic, tgun, Deaths and Crazerk) . So following your logic, I can safely say that there are at least 1 mafia who voted for each of these people and 2 people voted for one person...

Sorry, not trying to make fun of you but I found your argument about one or two mafia voting for Zerg a little hmm..... Again, the mafia's kill was somehow stopped last night. The doctor would know who the mafia tried to kill if the mafia missed the survivor so the doctor can be 50% sure that the person he saved isn't the mafia. It'll be foolish of the doctor to come out stating whom he saved so early in the game because the mafia will go after him for sure. That's the only conclusion we can make out of the 2 days so far. Today's still rather random in terms of lynching. I think you're reading too much into the early votes still, cruxis. Having said that, it's good to see tgun defending himself unlike nard who allowed himself to die.....

As for my vote, I think I'll try to force a tie because that'll help us in finding out who the mafia is the same way the mafia was revealed last round so my vote goes to Zergtastic.

I've already explained in the previous round that nothing can be concluded from a tie, even multiple ties. Not everyone agrees with this point of mine, but it's true.

Now would it be beneficial for Mafia or Citizen to force a tie?
For Mafia, it would be beneficial if none of their own members were in the tie situation. In other words, it is NOT beneficial for them to force a tie if one of their members were in the tie situation.
The leaders in votes at that point of time were tgun and Deathsfang. If pikk0n was Mafia, it would mean none of these people are Mafia.

For Citizens... I really don't know. While you can get lucky like last game and hit 2 Mafia... that's only if you're lucky. If you were lucky enough to hit 2 Mafia, then wouldn't you be lucky enough to hit just 1 Mafia on your original vote ? (without the tie) This way there won't be the uncertainty of the tie situation.

Thus it is NOT beneficial to force ties for Citizens since it creates uncertainty (and probably causes a diversion from the real Mafia), but beneficial for Mafia to force ties. Does this mean pikk0n is Mafia? Possibly. But again, not conclusive.

3) The whole drama with 2 Vigilantes being killed and Professional being lynched
IMO that was just bad decisionmaking by Deathsfang, he was safe (2-3 votes under Zerg I believe) but suddenly declared his role which set forth the chain of events.

Regardless, the priority for Mafia seems to be : Doctor, Arsonist, Professional.
Doctor being priority is obvious, given how he can block kills. Arsonist can actually make multiple kills in one night, and seems more powerful than Professional, since Arsonist will want to kill Mafia too to avoid getting night-shot by accident.
Professional? He has already won the game, so the only motivation to kill him would be that he is a random factor later on with his random kill. But he is not a priority, since he is of no direct threat of blocking a kill or wanting to kill Mafia.

Thus it seems that if you knew that Zergtastic was the Professional, it would not be in Mafia's best interest to kill Zergtastic, and you would rather vote for a random person and hope that he is a Doctor or Arsonist, since that is of a higher priority.

Rorshach and jackwong were two that switched their vote. Is this suspicious to suggest that they may be Mafia? Perhaps.
Then again, they could just be afraid of Zergtastic's threat to randomly lynch whoever was voting for him.


Yup. That's just my thoughts so far

+ [TLDR] +

PLEASE DONT KILL ME MAFIA I WANT TO KEEP DOING 'BLOG-LIKE' POSTS LIKE THESE! lolol. xD

And just some discussion for the night time:

Would it be beneficial for us (Citizens) if the Survivor announced his role? It helps to eliminate one potential mafia, and coming out doesn't give mafia any reason to snipe him either since he is technically low priority.

[cruxis]

I thinking voting Zerg out was the best decision. He's already won the game, so anything he says or does is basically moot. The Mafia would have to be retardedly stupid to kill Zerg. He had already won the game, and the doctor "might" have protected him. If I was deciding a killing blow, I would pick someone other then Zerg, in the hopes of getting the doctor or the informant.

Survivor coming forward doesn't really change anything, unless he can confirm whether the mafia tried to kill him on Night 1. If he wasn't, then obviously the doctor saved the right person, and then the doctor knows another possible citizen (Could still be a neutral role).

[pikk0n]

Hmm.... Zergtastic isn't a mafia? Now that's interesting.... So, does this mean that one of us would die from Zergtastic's random kill? Is it still possible for him to kill any one of us seeing that he is already dead? Also, he's used his daytime kill.

[Benji]

Sorry for the delay, got dragged to do social things :S

Next_rim has been killed by the Mafia. He is a Citizen.

1. nard - ***DEAD*** Killed by the Citizens (Citizen)
2. craZerk
3. pikk0n
4. LennX
5. DeathsFang - ***DEAD*** Killed by the Professional (Vigilante)
6. cruxis
7. Skrawl
8. pokerface
9. Rorschach
10. HDPhoenix
11. Next_rim - ***DEAD*** Killed by the Mafia (Citizen)
12. BakaInu
13. jackwong
14. tgun
15. Paroxysm
16. Zanderax
17. Zergtastic - ***DEAD*** Killed by the Citizens (Professional) *WINNER*
18. mustapusta - ***DEAD*** Killed by the Vigilante (Vigilante)
19. Dandelion
20. SONATA
21. Meatex
22. Screwby

It is now Daytime. Players have 48 hours to submit their daytime votes.

[Zanderax]

I'm gonna vote for pikk0n because he posted last and I can't be bothered to read anything else.

[iM tgun]

Still voting for pokerface. No need to change.

[LennX]

Voting for Dandelion.

[crAzerk]

Is everyone still voting randomly at this point?

Well my previous vote was jackwong, so I will vote jackwong again.
Also I felt his willingness to switch votes so readily off Zergtastic is suspicious, as I have outlined in the above post, which I will spoiler for you:

+ Show +

3) The whole drama with 2 Vigilantes being killed and Professional being lynched
IMO that was just bad decisionmaking by Deathsfang, he was safe (2-3 votes under Zerg I believe) but suddenly declared his role which set forth the chain of events.

Regardless, the priority for Mafia seems to be : Doctor, Arsonist, Professional.
Doctor being priority is obvious, given how he can block kills. Arsonist can actually make multiple kills in one night, and seems more powerful than Professional, since Arsonist will want to kill Mafia too to avoid getting night-shot by accident.
Professional? He has already won the game, so the only motivation to kill him would be that he is a random factor later on with his random kill. But he is not a priority, since he is of no direct threat of blocking a kill or wanting to kill Mafia.

Thus it seems that if you knew that Zergtastic was the Professional, it would not be in Mafia's best interest to kill Zergtastic, and you would rather vote for a random person and hope that he is a Doctor or Arsonist, since that is of a higher priority.

Rorshach and jackwong were two that switched their vote. Is this suspicious to suggest that they may be Mafia? Perhaps.
Then again, they could just be afraid of Zergtastic's threat to randomly lynch whoever was voting for him.

With nothing else to go on from,

I vote for jackwong

[Dandelion]

I can't beleave i missed a vote ;A;
I'm gonna use the list to calculate my vote, seeing as #1 Nard was Citizen it's very likely that the last will be anti-town.
Vote #22 Screwby

[HDPhoenix]

We still don't have a mafia kill so we have literally zero to pin-point. That said, we already lost a neutral AND 2 important town-aligned players + 2 other townies.. Nothing to work with

So I'll stick with my previous vote of SONATA till we get our first real break

[AvPoker]

Voting for Dandelion.

[pikk0n]

Guys, one of the mafia has already revealed himself and the only reason he is still around is because I forgot to switch my vote before Benji appeared yesterday to kill zergtastic off. You can go through his posts and notice the inconsistencies and the hubris settling in after the professional and the vigilantes killed each other or you can read my following summary which may end up being longer than what he wrote.

The first giveaway is when he seemed SOOO confident that Zergtastic wasn't a mafia despite the existence of a possibility that Zergtastic might still be a mafia and had taken the opportunity to pretend to be a professional after the professional killed Deaths. Now if you then read the post right before Benji's killing of Zergtastic (proving that zergtastic is indeed the professional hence only a mafia would have been that confident that Zergtastic wasn't part of their family), he would back down on his words because he noticed that his posts made him the lynch target after Zergtastic. That's where the inconsistencies started appearing. The reason it took me a while to make the vote switch from Zergtastic was because there was still the possibility that he was a mafia but the last post at day's end convinced me that this person was indeed a mafia. You can rest assured that he is not the joker from that post of his in his desperate attempt of survival. Unfortunately, Benji had ended the day.

The second reason is interesting. You'd notice that out of everyone, he is the FIRST to use US (Citizens) in a desperate attempt to convince us that he was indeed just a normal citizen. Seeing that there are still neutral roles out there as well as the full 5 mafias, I found this really suspicious because some of the neutral roled players would help the mafia and calling yourself out as a citizen (part of the town) would make you more of a target to the mafia family or it may appear to the mafia family that he was covering a neutral role of his and maybe even that of the doctor's. This is a sign of overconfidence from someone who is certain that he wouldn't die at night and the only reason that can be the case is if he's the mafia.

The third reason put to rest ALL my doubts about him NOT being a mafia. That long post at night would have been suicide for a normal citizen. IF any one person in his list was the mafia, he would have been taken out instantly. Oh, there is the argument that the mafia wouldn't take him out because that'll mean that their name was on the list BUT think about this. Why did YOU not post at night? You're all worried that it'll make you the mafia's target. Now THAT post of his shows overconfidence because we had missed out on a deal with the professional to have the mafia killed instantly during the day and well, with how things look at the moment, the mafia does indeed have the upperhand.

For these 3 reasons, my vote goes to crazerk as the first mafia who would be taken out. If he dies, his mafia buddies can be revealed to a certain extent from their votes. THAT's when vote patterns matter.

I was going to vote for crazerk today if the voting was still random because his random number generator chose me (when I attempted to use it...) but his posts gave me a good lead.

I wouldn't be surprised if i were the target of the Mafia tonight if crazerk does die but the only way he would survive is if I were to die from a counter lynch during the day's vote. If I am lynched during the day, you'll see that I'm not the mafia so crazerk will die tomorrow. The only concern you would have now is who the neutral aligned players want to side with. The side with the upperhand currently (mafia) or the side who at the moment MAY be struggling (town).

Apologies for the long post.

[BaKaiNu]

Crazerk. Because his TL;DR is not informational.

[jackwong]

Voted for Crazerk, because of last round

[SONATA]

i will go wif crazerk then. just following the crowd

[Meatex]

pikkon makes a valid argument so i will vote crazerk

[Next_rim]

whoa, fu mafia. I don't get to play now (

[ToRskrawL]

I AGREE WITH PIKKON!

Crazerk it is

[Zanderax]

Changing my vote from craZerk to pikk0n

[crAzerk]

Before you all hastily fall into pikk0n's trap of pinpointing me as Mafia, let me address what he said.

1)

Originally Posted by pikk0n

The third reason put to rest ALL my doubts about him NOT being a mafia. That long post at night would have been suicide for a normal citizen. IF any one person in his list was the mafia, he would have been taken out instantly

His point was that because I was Mafia and hence I was overconfident hence I dared to post at night.
That's nonsense. If you have been following the previous games, it was not as if people were silent at night, and if you refer to this thread:
http://www.sc2sea.com/showthread.php...t=mafia&page=9
That long post (in fact I made 2) that I made was also during the night (I was Citizen as well that game)

My reason for posting at night is because firstly I may be dead by morning, so I won't get a chance to present all my deductions which I love doing (as from previous game), and secondly it's almost an insurance - if I get killed because of my deductions it would point suspiciously at the Mafia based on what I've said.

Invalid point by pikk0n.

2) I don't quite get what he was trying to drive at, a neutral role would not want to seem like he was a neutral role, since they pose the most threat to the Mafia and would be targeted by Mafia. Citizens are of lower priority for Mafia to kill. If you don't see this you're not understanding the roles well.
Thus everyone should want to appear that he's a Citizen, even if he was a Neutral role such as Arsonist etc, because it would be lower priority for Mafia (unless you're Informant trying to convince everyone abt sth, etc)

3) And lastly, I don't see how I was ever confident of Zergtastic being anything at all. I had no idea what Zergtastic was, and my cluelessness was shown in what I had written. It seems like pikk0n merely created this illusion to deceive you all.

Why I thought pikk0n is suspicious
From the start he was already trying to force a tie. If he was had read up on the previous Mafia thread, he would have known that a tiebreaker only causes confusion. (as well as misunderstanding as to how the mathematics behind it works)
Why will any citizen want to force a tie? It's illogical. You will only want to force a tie if you know that the two people involved in the tie are not part of your Mafia family. Which was probably the case when he was trying to force a tie between Zergtastic and Deathsfang.

In addition, he writes an essay (with falsified 'facts') to try to pin it on me once he realized I was on to him in my previous post:

+ [pikk0n] +

2) pikkon tries to force a tie
+ [Read more] +


I've already explained in the previous round that nothing can be concluded from a tie, even multiple ties. Not everyone agrees with this point of mine, but it's true.

Now would it be beneficial for Mafia or Citizen to force a tie?
For Mafia, it would be beneficial if none of their own members were in the tie situation. In other words, it is NOT beneficial for them to force a tie if one of their members were in the tie situation.
The leaders in votes at that point of time were tgun and Deathsfang. If pikk0n was Mafia, it would mean none of these people are Mafia.

For Citizens... I really don't know. While you can get lucky like last game and hit 2 Mafia... that's only if you're lucky. If you were lucky enough to hit 2 Mafia, then wouldn't you be lucky enough to hit just 1 Mafia on your original vote ? (without the tie) This way there won't be the uncertainty of the tie situation.

Thus it is NOT beneficial to force ties for Citizens since it creates uncertainty (and probably causes a diversion from the real Mafia), but beneficial for Mafia to force ties. Does this mean pikk0n is Mafia? Possibly. But again, not conclusive.

Probably wants to silence me before I get any further in my deductions.

I suggest you guys look at those who are hopping on with pikk0n to make this attack on me, if I do die from the lynch and you realize I am NOT Mafia, one or more of these people who are banding together with him may be his Mafia buddies making a move.

Thus, I switch my vote to pikk0n