[inFeZa]

Soz, been away on business stuff. gotta read up on who dead

[crAzerk]

ROFL. This game is full of unlikely outcomes - first we randomly lynched a Mafia, and consequently killed the lovers, and now the Mafia hit the same person! Rofl i'm suppressing my laughter cos i'm at work but LOL.

I've a feeling the Mafia is trying to keep a low profile here, so that leaves us with a few options...

(Informant and Vigilante I hope you've done something useful. :S )

[EveRorschach]

I know who they are I have since day one clearly, it's...!
*BANG*
x_x.


gl guys I think its obvious now!

[LennX]

yea its me obviously :P

[Next_rim]

Talking about likely outcomes crAzek, huh? There is lie, there is damn lie, there is statistics. This is really getting interesting.

Vigilante, go shoot mustapusta already.

yea its me obviously :P

You are obviously trying to be joker :P

I've started my cool statistics page, it's work in progress. I'll submit my calculations later tonight, some of you will be surprised by how brilliant this game is from a mathematical standpoint.

[LennX]

being suspected as a joker means you will be safe from citizen lynching. That is rather good actually. Also I rather the vigilant will hurry up and kill already. Unless the informant is not feeding him information :P

[cruxis]

Oh wow, Mafia killing the same guy. You'd think both being there and killing him, they would then start killing each other.

Huge advantage for the Citizens now. Instead of having 2 dead citizens, we only have 1. This gives us an extra day basically to try and win the game.

So, we basically know Musta is the Joker. Crazerk was obviously getting close to figuring out who the Mafia was, as both families went after him. Time to go back over the thread and start deducing.

[cruxis]

Originally Posted by LennX

being suspected as a joker means you will be safe from citizen lynching. That is rather good actually. Also I rather the vigilant will hurry up and kill already. Unless the informant is not feeding him information :P

or, the more likely scenario being that they have only discovered Citizens so far. I hope they didn't waste a check on Musta last night.

[crAzerk]

? ? Cruxis you reading the same thread?

Crazerk was obviously getting close to figuring out who the Mafia was, as both families went after him

I didn't get targeted by the Mafia.. yet. :S I think they're just leaving me alone because they're figuring I'll get lynched because I'm talking so much and people are pointing fingers at me.

So, we basically know Musta is the Joker.

Why?

I actually had suspicions on Rosch since he tried to randomly pin things on people based on the 1st vote, but now that he's out...

I've a feeling the Informant is one of the inactives >< Hence the Vigilante can't do anything much.

[LennX]

Originally Posted by cruxis

Oh wow, Mafia killing the same guy. You'd think both being there and killing him, they would then start killing each other.

Huge advantage for the Citizens now. Instead of having 2 dead citizens, we only have 1. This gives us an extra day basically to try and win the game.

So, we basically know Musta is the Joker. Crazerk was obviously getting close to figuring out who the Mafia was, as both families went after him. Time to go back over the thread and start deducing.

There is no way musta can be the joker. Since he is actively asking people not to vote for him in Day 1. He then switches his tune in day 2 to let us think he is the joker.

I think crucis, you and musta are mafia since you are defending him a lot.

[Next_rim]

Ok, here are some calculations. Inside you will find an excel file with numbers. Feel free to analyze and refer to it. It is not a distribution analysis as I was hoping to put together, since it takes way more time than I have atm. It's just basic chances of various outcomes based on info we've had so far.

Generally, as the game goes along, the odds of randomly lynching mafia are almost same. That's how cool this game is. Unless we start thinking and deducting, mafia will win.

Btw, by pure chances, there is a 14% chance that both ties were citizen-mafia, and thus musta is mafia. Odds to randomly lynch a mafia are 27% now. So, random lynch has better chances than lynch by tie analysis at the moment.

[GGnoRe]

i vote cruxis.

[cruxis]

Originally Posted by crAzerk

? ? Cruxis you reading the same thread?

Oh wow, I'm a crackhead.

Disregard my entire post then.

[crAzerk]

Btw, by pure chances, there is a 14% chance that both ties were citizen-mafia, and thus musta is mafia. Odds to randomly lynch a mafia are 27% now. So, random lynch has better chances than lynch by tie analysis at the moment.

Ok, random lynch then.
People left:
1. Next_rim
2. cruxis
3. pokerface
4. Rorschach (DEAD)
5. LennX
6. craZerk
7. Paroxysm
8. mustapusta
9. HDPhoenix
10. PoisoN
11. Zanderax
12. GGnoRe

/roll

oh wtf. Ok let me roll again if not the lame people will say 'oh crazerk is voting with ggnore they're mafia'

/roll


Ok, random lynch - I vote Next_Rim


P.S. I'm going for a school camp the next 4-5 days, but I'll try to log on just to make my votes in Mafia (if I'm still alive). Won't be able to analyze and read stuff so thoroughly anymore though

[LennX]

Since I 1st voted for next_rim in the previous round, I shall vote for next_rim again.

[HDPhoenix]

Personally, I've seen enough of a pattern and even if he isn't a mafia, it would remove alot of doubt so the vigilant and informant can spend their efforts elsewhere

Vote Mustapusta

[mustapusta]

Just because i can, Voting Next_Rim

[Next_rim]

I guess I'm getting "randomly" lynched.

lol@crAzek, guess it's pretty clear now how you randomize your vote.

Vote musta, I'm surprised he is still alive.

[Benji]

1. Next_rim - Voted for mustapusta
2. Deathsfang - *DEAD* Killed by Lover (Tortellini Family/Lover)
3. BakaInu - *DEAD* Killed by Citizens (Citizen)
4. cruxis
5. pokerface
6. Rorschach - *DEAD* Killed by Both Families (Citizen)
7. SONATA - *DEAD* Killed by the Rossellini Family (Citizen)
8. Aean(: - *DEAD* Killed by Citizens (Citizen/Lover)
9. LennX - Voted for Next_rim
10. craZerk - Voted for Next_rim
11. Paroxysm
12. nard - *DEAD* Killed by the Tortellini Family (Citizen)
13. mustapusta - Voted for Next_rim
14. HDPhoenix - Voted for mustapusta
15. PoisoN
16. Zanderax
17. GGnoRe - Voted for Cruxis

3 Votes for Next_rim
2 Votes for mustapusta
1 Vote for Cruxis

[Zanderax]

I vote for mustapusta.

If it is between a Mafia and a Citizen, the Citizen is Killed
If it is between a Citizen and a Citizen, a Coin Flip resolves the tiebreaker
If it is between a Mafia and a Mafia, a Coin Flip resolves the tiebreaker.

Since Baka was a Citizen mustapusta is the best bet.