well nexus first is also fine but i think 14 forge would be generally safe in ur level also u have to always check the 3rd base if ur going to ffe if they dont have a third by 515 it either means a late third which is like infestor or muta ling then they will take a 730 third and if it isnt then it will be all in also watch out of 3 base baneling bust thats pretty hard u have to scout their drone count.
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