I've noticed a huge influx of forum posts, tweets and chat conversations recently about peoples' placements, and it has occurred to me that people don't quite understand how league promotion works. Now of course, you could go and look up Excalibur's four billion page article on Team Liquid. But I'm gonna try to explain it concisely.
So. Last season you were Gold league. You really powered hard over the last two weeks and felt like you've made some significant improvements. Your win ratio has improved from 48% to 57%. That's gotta be a promotion right?
So you play your placement match. Holy crap, it was against a Platinum player... and you won! But what the hell? Still in Gold?
Believe it or not, your chances of being promoted to a new league on "Placement day" are no higher than they are on any other day. If you were Gold league before Season 2 locked, you're probably going to be Gold league when you play your placement matches. Why?
Let's travel back in time two weeks, while I pull some random figures out of thin air.
The ladder just locked.
Lets say your MMR is currently 750.
Lets say the MMR for being promoted to Platinum (at this point in time) is 800.
You're so close! Surely if you ladder like crazy over the next two weeks, you'll get promoted right? No - because the MMR requirement for promotion is a living, breathing, moving figure. It's based on the MMR of everyone in and around that league. So what this means is, the required MMR is constantly rising or falling depending on what everyone else is doing.
Now interestingly enough, everyone has this same end-of-season mentality. "Gotta ladder like crazy so I can get promoted next season!" So of course, this causes the MMR requirement to 'spike', escalating higher than usual. You might be doing better, but so is everyone else.
So here we are two weeks in the future. You achieved your 850 MMR, and you've played your placement match. But why weren't you promoted? It's simple. Due to everyone hardcore laddering over the last two weeks, the required MMR for Platinum is now 1050!
So what this means, is that you're actually less likely to be promoted during end/beginning of a season than usual. Because the MMR is rising so rapidly, that it would require significant (read: inhuman) improvement by a player in order to keep up.
Now of course, there are exceptions to this rule. There are some people who were so close to the MMR when the ladder was locked, that they were probably due to be promoted in 1 or 2 more games. So of course, you could expect those people to be promoted straight out of the gate.
But for everyone else, don't be discouraged. The ladder will stabilise again in two more weeks, and MMR's will stop spiking. If you continue at your current rate, you should expect a promotion soon after.
And as one final attempt to visualise how this works, imagine this.
You're in a car, moving at 60 KM/h.
You're driving towards a goal.
The goal is 100KM away.
The goal is also moving at 60KM/h.
In order to reach the goal, you obviously need to increase your speed.
Eventually, with enough acceleration, you'll drive through it.
But then a season ends/begins. So you increase your speed to 80KM/h.
But so have all the other cars, and now the goal is now moving at 90KM/h!
Thus, you're still unable to reach the goal at your current pace.
I hope this helps anyone who finds themselves frustrated or disappointed in themselves after their recent placement results. Just keep at it.
And for those who have already managed to get promoted this season - congratulations!
That's quite a feat.
This is not so much a difference in server skill as it is a difference in sever population, because the divisions represent a percentage. Due to the much larger amount of players, the divisions are 'scaled down' in terms of the caliber of players that fill them.
While I agree with what Dox said originally, I think that members of a forum like sc2sea are more likely to enjoy a higher percentage of people who are promoted on the start of a new season. Where others will get bored and quit, or possibly lack motivation to get their MMR going (no matter how high it is increasing), those participating in a community atmosphere are less likely to leave the game - hence when there are promotions on offer, we will claim a disproportionate number.
That doesnt mean it is a sure thing, but when there are resources around (whether that is TGM, cheap coaching or just someone to chat to in a channel in game) and friendly atmosphere, those players can only do better than the average sc2 player without access to those resources. Just sayin.
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