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Predicting Hellion Timings (ZvT)
 

Alright, so I've been having this problem recently where Im doing my build, going about my own business and then all of a sudden all my drones are dead because my spines weren't in time. Obviously that is something that can be avoided, so I decided to start thinking. There are two obvious solutions:

1. Get a build which is safe against any and all hellion timings
2. Scout better and react to any hellion timings

The first sounds good initially, but you'd have to build the spines pretty fast, and if they happen to be putting their cc down fast, then you could be just setting yourself behind. There are options like doing a delayed roach push off 2base, like I've seen sheth and DRG do in the past. Only thing about that is I don't believe its a build that will always work, as if they know you're going to do it, they build a marauder or two and a bunker, which means zero damage. You get map control and push the hellions back, but it does cost a bit to invest in the push. So option two seems like the better option in this case. The question is, how can it be achieved?

Well, for this, we'll assume the drone scout is at 13 supply (Because thats usually when I scout) and will be scouting the terran's gas around 2:30-3:00. The reason I say such a huge timing window is because I like to set my drone to attack the first worker, which may take a while or may be denied right away, depending on if the terran is asleep or not. So then, we can see if the gas is up or not. The problem here being that we don't know how long its been up for, if its completed. So, this brings us to this technique which I heard about in lastshadow's video blogs on strategy.

Clicking the gas to check how much has been mined! Ok, so now we have a number. How does this help us predict when hellions will hit us? Well, if they have three workers on gas, it turns out it takes 1:20 to mine 150 gas. Why 150 gas? Because reactor = 50 gas, factory = 100. So, if we can click on the gas and then predict when 150 gas will be mined by, we can find:

- When hellions will pop out of factory
- When hellions will hit our base assuming they aren't delayed

The second figure being the more important here.

A factory takes 60 seconds to build
A hellion takes 30 seconds to build
The switchoff on reactor takes 8-10 seconds (In the replay I checked with, it took 10 but I think it could be done slightly faster than how he did it)

So, thats approximately 1:10 between the start of the factory and the hellion popping out. The rush distance on metalopolis turns out to be about 30 seconds for hellions, which is obviously not enough time for spines to be started and complete (They take 50 seconds).

So, anyway, what Im trying to get to is this:

Check the gas
Estimate the time that he'll have 150 gas mined by
Add 2 minutes to that time (less or more based on rush distance)
-> That is when hellions should hit your base

The two minutes is the factory construction time + hellion build time + rush distance. Why did I leave out the switchoff time? Because it would REALLY suck to have done all this calculation and have the hellions runby at the last second because the calculation was a bit too exact. I'd rather have it about 10 seconds in advance.

So, the hardest part of all of this is checking the gas and estimating the time, but hopefully this shows some zergs how you can be a bit more creative in scouting. I'm going to attempt to use this method, so please point out any mistakes I may have made. All the timings are taken from a replay I played yesterday vs a high masters terran, who was on top of all his timings. I don't really want to release the replay just for this, because I dont want to make it look like a brag replay, or make the guy feel bad. If anyone finds timings that are drastically different in their replays, I'll have a look at them and sort it out though.

Although, overlords cost 200 minerals, so Im sure I should factor that in too

Edit: Although this seems like a lot of work, if I do it enough times, I will just know when the hellions will be hitting me off of memory and wont need to calculate it anymore.