[crAzerk]

I really liked your writeup Tom, looks like a piece of academic writing that I am familiar with from school - a breath of fresh air in this forum settings

I just want to point out a possible faulty deduction before addressing the issue of whether Blizzard should balance for high levels/casuals.


Faulty Deduction?
Your argument is as such:

Premise 1: Protoss (players) have not been performing well in high level tournaments (Lowest Win Rate)
Premise 2: Protoss are underrepresented in the GM leagues in the world.
----
Conclusion : Protoss is underpowered in high level play.

While your first 2 premises are facts (As you have nicely presented with data) so they cannot be debated, the conclusion is questionable.

Does having a lower win rate equate to a race being underpowered?
I beg to differ.

While you have nicely pointed out 3 variables that determine a match outcome (player, map, race), I would like to suggest that the 3rd variable of race is incompletely portrayed. I mean, how does a person's race affect a match outcome? Does it matter whether he's producing SCVs or producing Drones (that's what race means)
I think a more accurate and complete description of that variable is this: Current Race Metagame. And with this description we'll see a possible answer as to why the results you have pointed out is occurring.

Current Race Metagame means how a particular race is currently handling matchups against other races. This can interact with the variable Map as well, for example, in the past TvZ on Lost Temple was just them abusing cliffs and Zergs losing terribly.
Over time of course, the metagame shifted with Zergs knowing how to handle this with OL/Spine placements, etc.
An example of it being an independent variable is the TvZ bunker rush - Zergs were losing to it when it was first popularized, but the metagame shifted back when they learnt how to handle it.

Thus, it would seem that the reason for Premises 1 and 2 is simply this - Current Zerg/Terran top player's Current Race Metagame is simply better than Protoss' Current Race Metagame. They know how to handle the different strategies Toss can throw at them, and know how to beat them effectively.

Does this mean Protoss is 'underpowered'? Not at all! It simply means Protoss player now has to figure out how to adapt to how Z/T are playing them now, and work out a new approach to beating them.


Issue of balancing
There has been endless debate about this already so I'll just provide my opinion on this issue.

Yes, Blizzard needs to balance the game for the high level players. But can they do this at the expense of the average players? No! There is a huge player pool that they will lose if they let the game fall into imbalance at the average level.

I think the key thing about how Blizzard is balancing things is just to ensure there's no strategy that the average player using a particular race can pull off to consistently beat others (e.g. 4gate) simply because that build is too strong.

And as for higher level play, they have to look at WHAT is causing the Protoss to lose. You cannot just average out the population as you would for a statistical analysis - you have to actually look at each game and find out WHY they are losing.
Is there some strategy/tactic that is just too difficult to hold off as Protoss? Is there some unfair advantage that another race gains over Protoss which the Protoss cannot make up for?
(E.g. Protoss usually gets more Probes than other races in the early stages, but they CAN make up for this with MULEs and fast Drone production later on)

As I don't have a proper conclusion,
-The End-

Quick Comments

ToRRedemption:

NICE POINTS!