[crAzerk]

Ok my take on what has happened so far:

1) cruxis with his deduction

+ [Read it here] +

Originally Posted by cruxis

Ok, just did some vote analysis.

The following people voted for Nard Day 1:
TGun
Pokerface
Zanderax
Paroxysm
Dandelion
Screwby
Bakainu
Jackwong
Rorschach
Pikkon
Skrawl
Sonata

Now, the following people voted for Zergtastic on Day 2:
Jackwong
Pokerface
Bakainu
Rorschach
Sonata

Now, comparing the lists results,the following players voted for both Nard and Zerg:
Jackwong
Pokerface
Bakainu
Rorschach
Sonata

Now, I don't think all of the mafia voted for Nard day 1, and it's unlikely they have all voted for Zerg as well. I believe that there's a good chance at least one of these players, possibly two, are Mafia.

Now, thinking back to game 2, Bakainu and Sonata were never very active, and usually voted in the same manner that they did here. And they were both citizens. I can't really remember the posting behaviour of the other players, which tends to make me think they were also not very active.

So, after all that, and considering everyone just seems to be random voting anyway, I will vote Pokerface, as he wasn't Mafia game 1 or 2, so his chances are greatly higher.

I think the motivation for the 1st vote was obvious, so it seems hasty to conclude anything from it.

It's a valid deduction, just not very sound imo. Could cruxis be Mafia and hence trying to cast suspicion on others early on? Possibly.

2) pikkon tries to force a tie

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Originally Posted by pikk0n

Interesting point, Cruxis but there are 5 mafias and 4 people with multiple votes (Zergtastic, tgun, Deaths and Crazerk) . So following your logic, I can safely say that there are at least 1 mafia who voted for each of these people and 2 people voted for one person...

Sorry, not trying to make fun of you but I found your argument about one or two mafia voting for Zerg a little hmm..... Again, the mafia's kill was somehow stopped last night. The doctor would know who the mafia tried to kill if the mafia missed the survivor so the doctor can be 50% sure that the person he saved isn't the mafia. It'll be foolish of the doctor to come out stating whom he saved so early in the game because the mafia will go after him for sure. That's the only conclusion we can make out of the 2 days so far. Today's still rather random in terms of lynching. I think you're reading too much into the early votes still, cruxis. Having said that, it's good to see tgun defending himself unlike nard who allowed himself to die.....

As for my vote, I think I'll try to force a tie because that'll help us in finding out who the mafia is the same way the mafia was revealed last round so my vote goes to Zergtastic.

I've already explained in the previous round that nothing can be concluded from a tie, even multiple ties. Not everyone agrees with this point of mine, but it's true.

Now would it be beneficial for Mafia or Citizen to force a tie?
For Mafia, it would be beneficial if none of their own members were in the tie situation. In other words, it is NOT beneficial for them to force a tie if one of their members were in the tie situation.
The leaders in votes at that point of time were tgun and Deathsfang. If pikk0n was Mafia, it would mean none of these people are Mafia.

For Citizens... I really don't know. While you can get lucky like last game and hit 2 Mafia... that's only if you're lucky. If you were lucky enough to hit 2 Mafia, then wouldn't you be lucky enough to hit just 1 Mafia on your original vote ? (without the tie) This way there won't be the uncertainty of the tie situation.

Thus it is NOT beneficial to force ties for Citizens since it creates uncertainty (and probably causes a diversion from the real Mafia), but beneficial for Mafia to force ties. Does this mean pikk0n is Mafia? Possibly. But again, not conclusive.

3) The whole drama with 2 Vigilantes being killed and Professional being lynched
IMO that was just bad decisionmaking by Deathsfang, he was safe (2-3 votes under Zerg I believe) but suddenly declared his role which set forth the chain of events.

Regardless, the priority for Mafia seems to be : Doctor, Arsonist, Professional.
Doctor being priority is obvious, given how he can block kills. Arsonist can actually make multiple kills in one night, and seems more powerful than Professional, since Arsonist will want to kill Mafia too to avoid getting night-shot by accident.
Professional? He has already won the game, so the only motivation to kill him would be that he is a random factor later on with his random kill. But he is not a priority, since he is of no direct threat of blocking a kill or wanting to kill Mafia.

Thus it seems that if you knew that Zergtastic was the Professional, it would not be in Mafia's best interest to kill Zergtastic, and you would rather vote for a random person and hope that he is a Doctor or Arsonist, since that is of a higher priority.

Rorshach and jackwong were two that switched their vote. Is this suspicious to suggest that they may be Mafia? Perhaps.
Then again, they could just be afraid of Zergtastic's threat to randomly lynch whoever was voting for him.


Yup. That's just my thoughts so far

+ [TLDR] +

PLEASE DONT KILL ME MAFIA I WANT TO KEEP DOING 'BLOG-LIKE' POSTS LIKE THESE! lolol. xD

And just some discussion for the night time:

Would it be beneficial for us (Citizens) if the Survivor announced his role? It helps to eliminate one potential mafia, and coming out doesn't give mafia any reason to snipe him either since he is technically low priority.